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icon for Taux de droit effectif américain pour le T2 2026 ?

Taux de droit effectif américain pour le T2 2026 ?

icon for Taux de droit effectif américain pour le T2 2026 ?

Taux de droit effectif américain pour le T2 2026 ?

NOUVEAU
26 août 2026
Polymarket

$1,106 Vol.

Polymarket

5 %+

$23 Vol.

91%

6 %+

$6 Vol.

87%

7 %+

$0 Vol.

83%

8 %+

$0 Vol.

73%

9 % +

$360 Vol.

44%

10 %+

$717 Vol.

18%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error). The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. **The US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026 (April–June) was shaped primarily by the 10% Section 122 global surcharge imposed after the Supreme Court invalidated broader IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, layered on top of existing Section 232 duties on steel, aluminum, copper, and derivatives.** This temporary measure, effective from late February through its scheduled July 24 expiration, produced reported quarterly averages around 7–7.5% in available estimates, down from higher 2025 peaks but well above the pre-2025 baseline near 2%. Section 232 expansions, including 50% rates on many metal products and adjustments to derivative coverage, remained key contributors alongside any lingering or modified Section 301 actions. Import shifts, exemptions, and collection timing influenced the customs-duties-to-import-value ratio used for the effective rate. As Q2 data finalizes, attention centers on official releases from customs and trade statistics, with the immediate post-quarter transition to new 10–12.5% Section 301 duties on dozens of partners (effective July 24) and additional targeted measures, such as 50% tariffs on select Canadian goods, setting the stage for later quarters. These policy mechanics and legal timelines define the range of outcomes traders assess for the Q2 resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e.

In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error).

The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Volume
$1,106
Date de fin
30 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 23, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error). The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error). The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. **The US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026 (April–June) was shaped primarily by the 10% Section 122 global surcharge imposed after the Supreme Court invalidated broader IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, layered on top of existing Section 232 duties on steel, aluminum, copper, and derivatives.** This temporary measure, effective from late February through its scheduled July 24 expiration, produced reported quarterly averages around 7–7.5% in available estimates, down from higher 2025 peaks but well above the pre-2025 baseline near 2%. Section 232 expansions, including 50% rates on many metal products and adjustments to derivative coverage, remained key contributors alongside any lingering or modified Section 301 actions. Import shifts, exemptions, and collection timing influenced the customs-duties-to-import-value ratio used for the effective rate. As Q2 data finalizes, attention centers on official releases from customs and trade statistics, with the immediate post-quarter transition to new 10–12.5% Section 301 duties on dozens of partners (effective July 24) and additional targeted measures, such as 50% tariffs on select Canadian goods, setting the stage for later quarters. These policy mechanics and legal timelines define the range of outcomes traders assess for the Q2 resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e.

In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error).

The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Volume
$1,106
Date de fin
30 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 23, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error). The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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Questions fréquentes

« Taux de droit effectif américain pour le T2 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 6 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 5 %+ » à 91%, suivi de « 6 %+ » à 87%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 91¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 91% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Taux de droit effectif américain pour le T2 2026 ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jul 23, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Taux de droit effectif américain pour le T2 2026 ? », parcourez les 6 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Taux de droit effectif américain pour le T2 2026 ? » est « 5 %+ » à 91%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 91% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 6 %+ » à 87%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Taux de droit effectif américain pour le T2 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.