President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing “on an equal basis” in response to alleged Russian and Chinese activities below the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty threshold remains the central driver of sentiment. No full-yield explosive test has occurred since 1992, and National Nuclear Security Administration readiness timelines, infrastructure constraints at the Nevada site, and the absence of dedicated recent funding continue to limit near-term feasibility. Statements from administration officials in early 2026 reaffirmed the policy without confirming explosive tests, while internal planning documents reference potential activity before the end of 2028. Traders assign low probabilities to tests by late 2026, reflecting these technical, diplomatic, and budgetary hurdles alongside ongoing arms-control tensions following New START’s expiration.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire américain par… ?
Essai nucléaire américain par… ?
$770,068 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
30 septembre 2026
1%
31 décembre 2026
4%
$770,068 Vol.
30 septembre 2026
$57,189 Vol.
1%
31 décembre 2026
$52,068 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing “on an equal basis” in response to alleged Russian and Chinese activities below the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty threshold remains the central driver of sentiment. No full-yield explosive test has occurred since 1992, and National Nuclear Security Administration readiness timelines, infrastructure constraints at the Nevada site, and the absence of dedicated recent funding continue to limit near-term feasibility. Statements from administration officials in early 2026 reaffirmed the policy without confirming explosive tests, while internal planning documents reference potential activity before the end of 2028. Traders assign low probabilities to tests by late 2026, reflecting these technical, diplomatic, and budgetary hurdles alongside ongoing arms-control tensions following New START’s expiration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$770,068Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing “on an equal basis” in response to alleged Russian and Chinese activities below the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty threshold remains the central driver of sentiment. No full-yield explosive test has occurred since 1992, and National Nuclear Security Administration readiness timelines, infrastructure constraints at the Nevada site, and the absence of dedicated recent funding continue to limit near-term feasibility. Statements from administration officials in early 2026 reaffirmed the policy without confirming explosive tests, while internal planning documents reference potential activity before the end of 2028. Traders assign low probabilities to tests by late 2026, reflecting these technical, diplomatic, and budgetary hurdles alongside ongoing arms-control tensions following New START’s expiration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$770,068Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing “on an equal basis” in response to alleged Russian and Chinese activities below the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty threshold remains the central driver of sentiment. No full-yield explosive test has occurred since 1992, and National Nuclear Security Administration readiness timelines, infrastructure constraints at the Nevada site, and the absence of dedicated recent funding continue to limit near-term feasibility. Statements from administration officials in early 2026 reaffirmed the policy without confirming explosive tests, while internal planning documents reference potential activity before the end of 2028. Traders assign low probabilities to tests by late 2026, reflecting these technical, diplomatic, and budgetary hurdles alongside ongoing arms-control tensions following New START’s expiration.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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