Recent polling from Quaest, Ideia, and Futura shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at roughly 39 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37 percent in first-round simulations for the October 4, 2026, election, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and smaller candidates dividing the remainder. This fragmented field, driven by opposition consolidation behind Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement of his son and Lula’s approval ratings near 44–47 percent amid economic pressures, keeps both frontrunners well below the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a runoff. Trader consensus at 85.5 percent for no outright winner reflects these persistent vote splits and historical patterns in Brazil’s two-round system, where similar polarization has routinely produced second-round contests.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$65,530 Vol.
$65,530 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Oui
$65,530 Vol.
$65,530 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Quaest, Ideia, and Futura shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at roughly 39 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37 percent in first-round simulations for the October 4, 2026, election, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and smaller candidates dividing the remainder. This fragmented field, driven by opposition consolidation behind Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement of his son and Lula’s approval ratings near 44–47 percent amid economic pressures, keeps both frontrunners well below the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a runoff. Trader consensus at 85.5 percent for no outright winner reflects these persistent vote splits and historical patterns in Brazil’s two-round system, where similar polarization has routinely produced second-round contests.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$65,530Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Quaest, Ideia, and Futura shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at roughly 39 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37 percent in first-round simulations for the October 4, 2026, election, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and smaller candidates dividing the remainder. This fragmented field, driven by opposition consolidation behind Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement of his son and Lula’s approval ratings near 44–47 percent amid economic pressures, keeps both frontrunners well below the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a runoff. Trader consensus at 85.5 percent for no outright winner reflects these persistent vote splits and historical patterns in Brazil’s two-round system, where similar polarization has routinely produced second-round contests.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$65,530Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling from Quaest, Ideia, and Futura shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at roughly 39 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37 percent in first-round simulations for the October 4, 2026, election, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and smaller candidates dividing the remainder. This fragmented field, driven by opposition consolidation behind Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement of his son and Lula’s approval ratings near 44–47 percent amid economic pressures, keeps both frontrunners well below the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a runoff. Trader consensus at 85.5 percent for no outright winner reflects these persistent vote splits and historical patterns in Brazil’s two-round system, where similar polarization has routinely produced second-round contests.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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