Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistical surges in the past month. Recent developments center on routine gray-zone pressure, including continued air and maritime incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ and coast guard patrols east of the island, alongside Beijing’s diplomatic protests over Taiwanese officials’ international travel. Taiwan has advanced asymmetric defenses through expanded drone procurement, live-fire integration of unmanned systems, and supplementary budgets for long-range strike capabilities, while U.S. and allied statements emphasize deterrence against status changes by force. Full-scale invasion preparations typically require months of visible buildup not evident in current patterns. Late developments such as an acute crisis or miscalculation remain theoretically possible but face significant operational and political barriers within the narrow remaining window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
<1% chance
$2,131,184 Vol.
$2,131,184 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Oui
<1% chance
$2,131,184 Vol.
$2,131,184 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistical surges in the past month. Recent developments center on routine gray-zone pressure, including continued air and maritime incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ and coast guard patrols east of the island, alongside Beijing’s diplomatic protests over Taiwanese officials’ international travel. Taiwan has advanced asymmetric defenses through expanded drone procurement, live-fire integration of unmanned systems, and supplementary budgets for long-range strike capabilities, while U.S. and allied statements emphasize deterrence against status changes by force. Full-scale invasion preparations typically require months of visible buildup not evident in current patterns. Late developments such as an acute crisis or miscalculation remain theoretically possible but face significant operational and political barriers within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$2,131,184Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistical surges in the past month. Recent developments center on routine gray-zone pressure, including continued air and maritime incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ and coast guard patrols east of the island, alongside Beijing’s diplomatic protests over Taiwanese officials’ international travel. Taiwan has advanced asymmetric defenses through expanded drone procurement, live-fire integration of unmanned systems, and supplementary budgets for long-range strike capabilities, while U.S. and allied statements emphasize deterrence against status changes by force. Full-scale invasion preparations typically require months of visible buildup not evident in current patterns. Late developments such as an acute crisis or miscalculation remain theoretically possible but face significant operational and political barriers within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,131,184Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistical surges in the past month. Recent developments center on routine gray-zone pressure, including continued air and maritime incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ and coast guard patrols east of the island, alongside Beijing’s diplomatic protests over Taiwanese officials’ international travel. Taiwan has advanced asymmetric defenses through expanded drone procurement, live-fire integration of unmanned systems, and supplementary budgets for long-range strike capabilities, while U.S. and allied statements emphasize deterrence against status changes by force. Full-scale invasion preparations typically require months of visible buildup not evident in current patterns. Late developments such as an acute crisis or miscalculation remain theoretically possible but face significant operational and political barriers within the narrow remaining window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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