Redistricting through California’s Proposition 50 shifted the 3rd Congressional District to a Democratic-leaning seat that Kamala Harris carried by roughly ten points in 2024, prompting Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to forgo reelection there. Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated to the district and has raised over $1.8 million, far outpacing Republican candidates such as Christine Bish. Analyst ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching and a crowded Democratic field likely to advance at least one nominee to the November general election, trader consensus places the Democratic Party at 85 percent implied probability while assigning the Republican Party just 15 percent.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -03 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
CA -03 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$25,113 वॉल्यूम
$25,113 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
85%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
15%
$25,113 वॉल्यूम
$25,113 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$13,178 वॉल्यूम
85%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$11,935 वॉल्यूम
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting through California’s Proposition 50 shifted the 3rd Congressional District to a Democratic-leaning seat that Kamala Harris carried by roughly ten points in 2024, prompting Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to forgo reelection there. Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated to the district and has raised over $1.8 million, far outpacing Republican candidates such as Christine Bish. Analyst ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching and a crowded Democratic field likely to advance at least one nominee to the November general election, trader consensus places the Democratic Party at 85 percent implied probability while assigning the Republican Party just 15 percent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$25,113समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting through California’s Proposition 50 shifted the 3rd Congressional District to a Democratic-leaning seat that Kamala Harris carried by roughly ten points in 2024, prompting Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to forgo reelection there. Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated to the district and has raised over $1.8 million, far outpacing Republican candidates such as Christine Bish. Analyst ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching and a crowded Democratic field likely to advance at least one nominee to the November general election, trader consensus places the Democratic Party at 85 percent implied probability while assigning the Republican Party just 15 percent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$25,113समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting through California’s Proposition 50 shifted the 3rd Congressional District to a Democratic-leaning seat that Kamala Harris carried by roughly ten points in 2024, prompting Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to forgo reelection there. Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated to the district and has raised over $1.8 million, far outpacing Republican candidates such as Christine Bish. Analyst ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching and a crowded Democratic field likely to advance at least one nominee to the November general election, trader consensus places the Democratic Party at 85 percent implied probability while assigning the Republican Party just 15 percent.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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