Current forecasts from Météo-France and European ensemble models indicate a mostly cloudy spring day across Paris with light winds that are limiting daytime heating, positioning the highest temperature most likely near 16°C. Official morning observations show overnight lows of 8–10°C rising gradually into the mid-teens by afternoon, consistent with recent unstable conditions that have suppressed readings several degrees below the long-term May average high of roughly 18°C. This scientific consensus underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for 16°C, though brief late-day clearing could still permit modest additional warming and shift the peak upward.