Official observations from San Francisco International Airport confirmed a daily maximum temperature of 66–67°F on May 16, aligning with National Weather Service records and driving the market’s near-certain outcome for that bin. Persistent onshore marine-layer advection from the Pacific maintained stratus coverage and limited afternoon heating, consistent with typical May climatology near 67°F yet tempered by moderate westerly winds of 15–25 mph that prevented any significant offshore warming. Historical analogs and model consensus had positioned this range as the most probable resolution window. The only realistic challenges would involve a post-event data revision from the primary station or an unprecedented reporting discrepancy, both of which remain statistically rare given standardized measurement protocols.