Recent National Weather Service forecasts for New York City indicate an overnight low near 64°F on May 18, supported by a mild southwesterly flow, light winds under 10 mph, and variable cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. Ensemble model spreads from the Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show a 5–7°F uncertainty range, with clearer skies potentially pushing readings into the low 60s while higher humidity or increased cloudiness could hold the minimum in the upper 60s. This distribution explains why traders assign the highest implied probability (34.5%) to the 66–67°F outcome and 21.5% to 64–65°F, reflecting consensus around slightly above-normal mid-May conditions. Key variables include the exact timing of any passing weak front and surface dewpoint trends, with the next official update from the New York National Weather Service expected by early morning to refine these thresholds.