Recent developments show the equatorial Pacific transitioning from ENSO-neutral conditions toward El Niño, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center placing an 82% probability on El Niño emergence during May–July 2026. This shift, supported by warming subsurface temperatures and strengthening westerly wind anomalies, is the dominant factor positioning the 1.10–1.14 °C bin as the market leader. Underlying long-term warming trends continue to elevate baseline temperatures, while the early-stage El Niño onset typically adds modest global warmth rather than immediate extremes. Model ensembles from NMME and C3S indicate gradual intensification through the summer, with substantial uncertainty in peak strength that aligns with the narrow spread traders currently favor. Updated seasonal forecasts and May observational data releases expected in coming weeks remain key variables that could refine these implied probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 60%
1.15–1.19ºC 16%
<1.10ºC 16%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,978 वॉल्यूम
$58,978 वॉल्यूम
10 जून, 2026
<1.10ºC
16%
1.10–1.14ºC
60%
1.15–1.19ºC
16%
1.20–1.24ºC
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 60%
1.15–1.19ºC 16%
<1.10ºC 16%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,978 वॉल्यूम
$58,978 वॉल्यूम
10 जून, 2026
<1.10ºC
$24,002 वॉल्यूम
16%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,389 वॉल्यूम
60%
1.15–1.19ºC
$8,833 वॉल्यूम
16%
1.20–1.24ºC
$6,460 वॉल्यूम
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
$6,539 वॉल्यूम
3%
>1.29ºC
$7,755 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent developments show the equatorial Pacific transitioning from ENSO-neutral conditions toward El Niño, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center placing an 82% probability on El Niño emergence during May–July 2026. This shift, supported by warming subsurface temperatures and strengthening westerly wind anomalies, is the dominant factor positioning the 1.10–1.14 °C bin as the market leader. Underlying long-term warming trends continue to elevate baseline temperatures, while the early-stage El Niño onset typically adds modest global warmth rather than immediate extremes. Model ensembles from NMME and C3S indicate gradual intensification through the summer, with substantial uncertainty in peak strength that aligns with the narrow spread traders currently favor. Updated seasonal forecasts and May observational data releases expected in coming weeks remain key variables that could refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$58,978समाप्ति तिथि
10 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent developments show the equatorial Pacific transitioning from ENSO-neutral conditions toward El Niño, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center placing an 82% probability on El Niño emergence during May–July 2026. This shift, supported by warming subsurface temperatures and strengthening westerly wind anomalies, is the dominant factor positioning the 1.10–1.14 °C bin as the market leader. Underlying long-term warming trends continue to elevate baseline temperatures, while the early-stage El Niño onset typically adds modest global warmth rather than immediate extremes. Model ensembles from NMME and C3S indicate gradual intensification through the summer, with substantial uncertainty in peak strength that aligns with the narrow spread traders currently favor. Updated seasonal forecasts and May observational data releases expected in coming weeks remain key variables that could refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$58,978समाप्ति तिथि
10 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent developments show the equatorial Pacific transitioning from ENSO-neutral conditions toward El Niño, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center placing an 82% probability on El Niño emergence during May–July 2026. This shift, supported by warming subsurface temperatures and strengthening westerly wind anomalies, is the dominant factor positioning the 1.10–1.14 °C bin as the market leader. Underlying long-term warming trends continue to elevate baseline temperatures, while the early-stage El Niño onset typically adds modest global warmth rather than immediate extremes. Model ensembles from NMME and C3S indicate gradual intensification through the summer, with substantial uncertainty in peak strength that aligns with the narrow spread traders currently favor. Updated seasonal forecasts and May observational data releases expected in coming weeks remain key variables that could refine these implied probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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