Giorgia Meloni’s centre-right coalition holds a commanding parliamentary majority secured in the 2022 elections, enabling her government to weather recent domestic pressures without facing credible no-confidence threats or coalition fractures. Italy’s relative stability, highlighted by Meloni herself in mid-May amid turbulence in France and Germany, has reinforced this position, with her party maintaining steady polling around 30 percent and few scheduled parliamentary tests before the 2027 general election. The March judicial reform referendum defeat triggered limited cabinet adjustments but produced no broader challenge to her leadership. While an unforeseen diplomatic crisis or sudden internal revolt could theoretically intervene before June 30, current institutional and political conditions make such developments improbable in the near term, aligning with the market’s strong consensus that she will remain in office.