Robust positive real GDP readings and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative 2026 growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.5% annualized expansion in Q2 2026, following 2.1% in Q1, while official and private projections from the CBO, S&P Global, and Philadelphia Fed cluster near 2.1–2.2% for the full year. Investment-led momentum, AI-driven capital spending, and resilient consumer outlays continue to support above-trend activity despite tariff headwinds and labor-market cooling. Traders price in low recession odds given these data and limited evidence of contractionary forces. Tail risks remain centered on sharper fiscal tightening, escalation in energy or trade conflicts, or an abrupt productivity reversal that could tip quarterly prints negative.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में नकारात्मक जीडीपी वृद्धि?
2026 में नकारात्मक जीडीपी वृद्धि?
हाँ
4% संभावना
$32,234 वॉल्यूम
$32,234 वॉल्यूम
28 जन, 2027
हाँ
4% संभावना
$32,234 वॉल्यूम
$32,234 वॉल्यूम
28 जन, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust positive real GDP readings and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative 2026 growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.5% annualized expansion in Q2 2026, following 2.1% in Q1, while official and private projections from the CBO, S&P Global, and Philadelphia Fed cluster near 2.1–2.2% for the full year. Investment-led momentum, AI-driven capital spending, and resilient consumer outlays continue to support above-trend activity despite tariff headwinds and labor-market cooling. Traders price in low recession odds given these data and limited evidence of contractionary forces. Tail risks remain centered on sharper fiscal tightening, escalation in energy or trade conflicts, or an abrupt productivity reversal that could tip quarterly prints negative.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$32,234समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust positive real GDP readings and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative 2026 growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.5% annualized expansion in Q2 2026, following 2.1% in Q1, while official and private projections from the CBO, S&P Global, and Philadelphia Fed cluster near 2.1–2.2% for the full year. Investment-led momentum, AI-driven capital spending, and resilient consumer outlays continue to support above-trend activity despite tariff headwinds and labor-market cooling. Traders price in low recession odds given these data and limited evidence of contractionary forces. Tail risks remain centered on sharper fiscal tightening, escalation in energy or trade conflicts, or an abrupt productivity reversal that could tip quarterly prints negative.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$32,234समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust positive real GDP readings and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative 2026 growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.5% annualized expansion in Q2 2026, following 2.1% in Q1, while official and private projections from the CBO, S&P Global, and Philadelphia Fed cluster near 2.1–2.2% for the full year. Investment-led momentum, AI-driven capital spending, and resilient consumer outlays continue to support above-trend activity despite tariff headwinds and labor-market cooling. Traders price in low recession odds given these data and limited evidence of contractionary forces. Tail risks remain centered on sharper fiscal tightening, escalation in energy or trade conflicts, or an abrupt productivity reversal that could tip quarterly prints negative.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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