Trader consensus on the Polymarket heavily favors 2026 ranking as the second-warmest year on record at 57.5% implied probability, followed by first at 35%, driven by the anticipated emergence of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific by mid-2026. Official NOAA outlooks assign an 82% chance of El Niño developing by July and persisting through winter, which would amplify global surface temperatures atop the established anthropogenic warming trend and the eleven consecutive hottest years through 2025. This outlook aligns with recent model runs projecting 2026 anomalies near 1.46 °C above pre-industrial levels, positioning the year behind the 2024 record but ahead of most prior years unless El Niño strength exceeds current expectations. Ongoing global temperature monitoring and updated ENSO forecasts through summer will provide key data points for refining these market-implied odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयारिकॉर्ड पर सबसे गर्म वर्षों में 2026 का स्थान कहाँ होगा?
रिकॉर्ड पर सबसे गर्म वर्षों में 2026 का स्थान कहाँ होगा?
2 57%
1 35%
4 2.8%
6 या उससे कम 2.3%
$2,821,661 वॉल्यूम
$2,821,661 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
1
35%
2
57%
3
2%
4
3%
5
1%
6 या उससे कम
2%
2 57%
1 35%
4 2.8%
6 या उससे कम 2.3%
$2,821,661 वॉल्यूम
$2,821,661 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
1
$453,744 वॉल्यूम
35%
2
$325,828 वॉल्यूम
57%
3
$428,462 वॉल्यूम
2%
4
$416,579 वॉल्यूम
3%
5
$732,047 वॉल्यूम
1%
6 या उससे कम
$465,002 वॉल्यूम
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on the Polymarket heavily favors 2026 ranking as the second-warmest year on record at 57.5% implied probability, followed by first at 35%, driven by the anticipated emergence of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific by mid-2026. Official NOAA outlooks assign an 82% chance of El Niño developing by July and persisting through winter, which would amplify global surface temperatures atop the established anthropogenic warming trend and the eleven consecutive hottest years through 2025. This outlook aligns with recent model runs projecting 2026 anomalies near 1.46 °C above pre-industrial levels, positioning the year behind the 2024 record but ahead of most prior years unless El Niño strength exceeds current expectations. Ongoing global temperature monitoring and updated ENSO forecasts through summer will provide key data points for refining these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,821,661समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on the Polymarket heavily favors 2026 ranking as the second-warmest year on record at 57.5% implied probability, followed by first at 35%, driven by the anticipated emergence of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific by mid-2026. Official NOAA outlooks assign an 82% chance of El Niño developing by July and persisting through winter, which would amplify global surface temperatures atop the established anthropogenic warming trend and the eleven consecutive hottest years through 2025. This outlook aligns with recent model runs projecting 2026 anomalies near 1.46 °C above pre-industrial levels, positioning the year behind the 2024 record but ahead of most prior years unless El Niño strength exceeds current expectations. Ongoing global temperature monitoring and updated ENSO forecasts through summer will provide key data points for refining these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$2,821,661समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the Polymarket heavily favors 2026 ranking as the second-warmest year on record at 57.5% implied probability, followed by first at 35%, driven by the anticipated emergence of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific by mid-2026. Official NOAA outlooks assign an 82% chance of El Niño developing by July and persisting through winter, which would amplify global surface temperatures atop the established anthropogenic warming trend and the eleven consecutive hottest years through 2025. This outlook aligns with recent model runs projecting 2026 anomalies near 1.46 °C above pre-industrial levels, positioning the year behind the 2024 record but ahead of most prior years unless El Niño strength exceeds current expectations. Ongoing global temperature monitoring and updated ENSO forecasts through summer will provide key data points for refining these market-implied odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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