Strong anthropogenic warming from greenhouse gases combined with residual ocean heat from the 2023–2024 El Niño has kept 2026 global temperatures near record levels through mid-year, according to analyses from NOAA, NASA, and Carbon Brief. Early 2026 monthly anomalies placed the year behind 2024 but ahead of most prior records, with February ranking fifth-warmest globally; models project a best-estimate outcome of roughly 1.47 °C above pre-industrial, favoring second place behind 2024 (67 % implied probability) while leaving a modest chance of surpassing it as the warmest. A developing El Niño by late 2026 could boost remaining months, though La Niña influences earlier in the period and natural variability introduce uncertainty in final ranking.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाNOAA declares El Niño and expects 2026 to rank among top five hottest years
1 dips to 64%3%
NOAA officially declared El Niño in early June 2026 and stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record, and very likely within the top five. This official declaration and forecast influenced market prices favoring top rankings for 2026.
NOAA reports 2026 virtually certain to be among 10 warmest years, likely top five
2 drops to 61%7%
NOAA's mid-2026 report stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely within the top five, reinforcing market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NOAA confirms 2026 very likely to rank within top five hottest years on record
2 rises to 62%1%
NOAA released a report stating it is virtually certain that 2026 will be among the 10 warmest years and very likely within the top five, citing the onset of El Niño and record ocean heat as key factors, which influenced market confidence in 2026's high ranking.
NOAA declares El Niño and expects 2026 among top five hottest years
2 drops to 65%5%
NOAA officially declared an El Niño event in early June 2026 and stated it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record and very likely within the top five. This official declaration reinforced market expectations of a high ranking for 2026.
NCEI reports June 2026 as second-warmest June on record
2 dips to 61%4%
The National Centers for Environmental Information reported that June 2026 was the second-warmest June on record globally, with the January-June 2026 period being the third highest on record. This data supported the market's view that 2026 would rank among the top hottest years.
NOAA confirms 2026 El Niño likely to make it one of warmest years
2 dips to 64%4%
NOAA reported that the 2026 El Niño is one of the warmest on record, with global surface temperature departures for January-June 2026 being the third highest in the 177-year record. This increased market confidence that 2026 would rank in the top five hottest years, possibly second or first.
NOAA announces temporary data access disruption during interface upgrade
2 drops to 65%9%
NOAA announced a temporary unavailability of their data access interface from July 6 to July 7, 2026, which may delay immediate access to the final 2026 temperature data. This event had minimal impact on market prices but was noted as a procedural update.
NOAA launches redesigned data access interface amid data update
2 dips to 68%2%
NOAA released a redesigned and enhanced Data Access User Interface, coinciding with the availability of updated global temperature data, which likely contributed to market finalization and confidence in the 2026 temperature ranking.
NOAA launches redesigned data access interface amid data update
On July 7, 2026, NOAA launched a redesigned and enhanced Data Access User Interface, temporarily limiting data availability but signaling ongoing improvements in temperature data dissemination, which may influence final market resolution as 2026 data becomes accessible.
NOAA releases updated global surface temperature data for early 2026
2 rises to 65%1%
NOAA's updated global surface temperature dataset released in early July 2026 provided the latest measurements confirming elevated temperatures consistent with 2026 being the second hottest year, solidifying market consensus reflected in final price levels.
Climate Shift Index shows ocean temperatures influenced by climate change
1 dips to 67%1%
The Climate Shift Index map released in early July 2026 highlighted ongoing ocean warming and marine heatwaves, consistent with the trend of record global temperatures. This reinforced the market's confidence in 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
NASA announces upcoming redesign of NOAA data interface, temporarily limiting access
2 drops to 65%10%
NOAA announced a redesign of its data access interface scheduled for July 6-7, 2026, causing temporary unavailability of temperature data which may have contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility near early July.
NASA releases final 2026 GISS No_Smoothing temperature data
NASA released the final 2026 GISS temperature file (No_Smoothing) the next day, providing the definitive figure that the market will resolve on. The anticipation of an official rank caused a final price consolidation toward outcome 2.
Forecasts indicate 2026 Super El Niño trending toward record-breaking intensity
2 dips to 65%2%
Long-range forecasts from ECMWF and Severe Weather Europe indicated a strong and potentially record-breaking El Niño developing in 2026, expected to drive global temperature records, supporting market confidence in 2026's top ranking.
NOAA June 2026 report shows second-warmest June on record and highest ocean temperatures
2 dips to 65%3%
NOAA's June 2026 report confirmed the second-warmest June on record and record-high ocean temperatures, reinforcing expectations that 2026 will rank among the top hottest years.
NOAA: May 2026 ranks as second‑warmest May on record
2 drops to 65%5%
NOAA’s July 2026 monthly report announced that May 2026 was the second‑warmest May on record, reinforcing the upward trend and confirming the market’s move toward outcome 2 while further diminishing outcome 3.
World’s oceans experience hottest June ever, signaling more heat ahead
2 drops to 67%7%
The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported the warmest June ever observed in the oceans, with El Niño onset expected to push temperatures higher, reinforcing market expectations of 2026's high rank among hottest years.
NOAA reports positive North Atlantic Oscillation index influencing ocean temperatures
2 dips to 66%1%
NOAA reported a positive North Atlantic Oscillation index in April 2026, affecting sea surface temperature anomalies and contributing to global temperature trends. This scientific update influenced market perceptions of 2026's temperature ranking, slightly lowering confidence in it being the hottest year but supporting a high rank.
Berkeley Earth and other agencies forecast 2026 among four warmest years on record
2 dips to 67%2%
Berkeley Earth and other climate research organizations forecasted 2026 to be among the four warmest years, with probabilities favoring second or fourth place, reflecting market price movements favoring the second hottest outcome.
Reports confirm 2026 on track to be second warmest year due to strong El Niño
2 rises to 66%3%
Multiple analyses from NOAA, NASA, and Carbon Brief confirmed that 2026 temperatures remained near record levels through mid-year, driven by a strong El Niño event, solidifying market expectations that 2026 would rank as the 2nd hottest year on record.
Global oceans break June temperature record, signaling extreme warming
2 dips to 66%1%
Data showed global ocean temperatures reached record highs in June 2026, indicating extreme warming and supporting market confidence that 2026 will be among the hottest years on record.
World’s oceans experience hottest June ever, signaling more heat ahead
2 rises to 67%4%
Reports from the Copernicus Climate Change Service and EU monitors confirmed June 2026 as the warmest on record for oceans, with El Niño and climate change driving further warming, reinforcing market expectations for 2026's high temperature rank.
Climate Brief projects 2026 likely second to fourth warmest year
2 jumps to 70%8%
Carbon Brief published projections indicating that 2026 is likely to be between the second and fourth warmest year on record, similar to recent years. This forecast strengthened market confidence in the '2' outcome, leading to a price peak in late June 2026.
Climate Shift Index highlights significant ocean warming in mid-2026
2 jumps to 60%7%
The Climate Shift Index: Ocean map showed increased frequency of ocean temperatures exceeding thresholds, indicating strong climate change influence, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would be among the hottest years, boosting the 2nd hottest year outcome price.
Climate Shift Index shows increased ocean heat influence in 2026
2 jumps to 64%5%
The Climate Shift Index: Ocean map released on June 29, 2026, demonstrated significant marine heatwaves and elevated sea surface temperatures globally, reinforcing expectations of 2026 ranking among the hottest years and supporting the 2nd place outcome.
Climate Shift Index Highlights Ocean Temperature Anomalies Influencing Global Heat
2 dips to 65%3%
The Climate Shift Index: Ocean map showed significant ocean temperature anomalies and marine heatwaves, reinforcing the influence of climate change on global temperatures and supporting market confidence in 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
Climate Shift Index shows widespread ocean warming, contributing to global temperature rise
2 jumps to 69%6%
Data from the Climate Shift Index indicated significant ocean warming globally, a key factor in driving up global surface temperatures and supporting the market's confidence in a top ranking for 2026.
Climate Shift Index highlights ongoing ocean warming and marine heatwaves
2 jumps to 69%6%
The Climate Shift Index: Ocean global map released on June 28, 2026, showed significant ocean temperature anomalies consistent with climate change impacts, reinforcing expectations of a hot year. This contributed to sustained high market prices for 2026 ranking as the second hottest year.
NASA and climate data show strong El Niño developing, boosting 2026 heat
1 jumps to 71%8%
NASA data and sea surface temperature analyses indicated a strong El Niño developing in mid-2026, which is expected to drive record global temperatures. This scientific confirmation supported market moves favoring 2026 as the hottest year.
Climate Shift Index Highlights Global Ocean Temperature Anomalies
2 jumps to 70%8%
The Climate Shift Index: Ocean map showed significant influence of climate change on daily sea surface temperatures worldwide, including marine heatwaves. This data underscored ongoing warming trends, supporting market confidence in 2026 ranking high among hottest years.
UK and Germany break June temperature records amid Europe heatwave
2 jumps to 75%12%
The UK set its highest June temperature on record, and Germany recorded a new national high, as a severe heatwave swept Europe, causing deaths and power outages, reinforcing the market's view of 2026 as a very hot year.
Market reacts to mid-year temperature data suggesting 2026 near second hottest year
2 surges to 76%17%
Mid-year temperature data releases and analyses indicated 2026 was tracking as one of the hottest years, likely second hottest, causing a peak in market probability for the 2nd place outcome. This reflected growing confidence in 2026's high ranking but not surpassing the hottest year.
Positive North Atlantic Oscillation index and ocean temperature anomalies reported in April 2026
2 rises to 65%3%
NOAA reported a positive NAO index and ongoing ocean temperature anomalies in April 2026, indicating persistent warm ocean conditions that contribute to elevated global temperatures. This reinforced market confidence in 2026 ranking as the second hottest year, reflected in rising prices for outcome '2'.
NOAA officially declares El Niño in early June 2026, boosting temperature forecasts
2 jumps to 68%8%
NOAA's official El Niño declaration in early June 2026 increased confidence in higher global temperatures for the year, influencing market prices to peak for the hottest year outcomes.
NASA mid‑year update: 2026 remains within 0.02 °C of 2024 record
2 jumps to 70%8%
NASA published a mid‑year update confirming that 2026’s temperature remained within a few hundredths of a degree of the 2024 record, solidifying belief that 2026 would rank #2 rather than #1, prompting a final surge in outcome 2’s price.
Carbon Brief analysis projects 2026 as second-warmest year with strong El Niño
2 jumps to 76%7%
Carbon Brief's analysis predicted 2026 to be the second-warmest year on record, with a 19% chance to surpass 2024, driven by a strong El Niño developing later in the year. This scientific projection likely caused a peak in market confidence for the second-place outcome.
NASA confirms 2025 as hottest year on record, 2026 unlikely to surpass
2 jumps to 71%6%
NASA's mid-year update reaffirmed 2025 as the hottest year on record and indicated that 2026 temperatures, while high, were not exceeding 2025 levels. This solidified market consensus that 2026 would rank second hottest, leading to a peak in the '2' outcome price.
NASA data shows June 2026 among hottest months, supporting high 2026 temperature rank
2 jumps to 68%7%
NASA's GISTEMP data for June 2026 indicated very high temperature anomalies, consistent with 2026 ranking as the 2nd hottest year. This data release caused a peak in market confidence for the 2nd hottest year outcome.
NASA confirms 2025 as third warmest year, setting benchmark for 2026
2 surges to 76%15%
NASA's release confirming 2025 as the third warmest year on record provided a benchmark for assessing 2026's temperature. This data supported market confidence that 2026 would rank just below the top three, boosting the 2nd hottest year outcome price to its peak.
NASA data shows 2026 temperature anomaly consistent with 2nd hottest year ranking
2 jumps to 67%6%
NASA's updated temperature data around June 2026 indicated that 2026's global temperature anomaly was very high but not surpassing the record hottest years, reinforcing the market's peak confidence in the 2nd hottest year outcome.
NASA Updates Show 2025, 2024, and 2023 as Warmest Years, Highlighting Recent Warming Trend
2 jumps to 68%5%
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio released updated data confirming 2025, 2024, and 2023 as the three warmest years on record, emphasizing the recent warming trend and indirectly supporting expectations that 2026 would rank near the top, influencing market prices upward for the 2nd hottest year outcome.
UK Met Office forecasts 2026 among four warmest years on record
2 jumps to 69%6%
The UK Met Office forecasted that 2026 would likely be among the four warmest years on record, estimating a global temperature around 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels. This official forecast supported market expectations for 2026 to rank near the top, contributing to price increases for the second-place outcome.
Europe experiences record-breaking heat wave in late June 2026
2 rises to 67%2%
An intense heat wave in Europe broke multiple national heat records and hundreds of all-time heat records at long-term stations, highlighting extreme temperature events consistent with high global temperature anomalies. This event reinforced market expectations of 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
Global oceans break June temperature record amid strengthening El Niño
2 rises to 67%4%
Data from Copernicus Climate Change Service showed record global sea surface temperatures in June 2026, indicating strong oceanic warming that typically drives higher global temperatures, further supporting market confidence in 2026's high ranking.
World’s oceans experience hottest June ever recorded
2 rises to 63%3%
The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported record global sea surface temperatures in June 2026, driven by El Niño and climate change, indicating sustained global heat and supporting market expectations for a very hot year.
Climate scientists predict 2026 will be hottest year on record aided by El Niño
Scientists including James Hansen publicly predicted 2026 would be the hottest year on record, driven by climate change and a strong El Niño effect expected to raise temperatures further. This increased market confidence in 2026 ranking first.
NOAA declares El Niño and forecasts 2026 among top five hottest years
2 dips to 64%2%
NOAA officially declared El Niño in early June 2026 and forecasted that 2026 is virtually certain to rank among the top five hottest years on record, strongly influencing market prices toward second place.
Record-breaking heat waves in Europe bolster expectations for 2026's warmth
2 rises to 59%3%
Heat records in the UK and France during May 2026 highlighted the ongoing warming trend, reinforcing expert predictions that 2026 could be the hottest year on record, influencing market prices upward for the '2' outcome.
April 2026 recorded as fourth warmest April on record by NOAA
2 jumps to 68%5%
NOAA reported that April 2026 was the fourth warmest April on record globally, consistent with the warming trend and El Niño influence, reinforcing market expectations for 2026's high temperature ranking.
Record-breaking heatwaves in Europe and US fuel speculation on 2026 hottest year
2 rises to 68%4%
Widespread heatwaves in Europe and the US in mid-2026, including record May temperatures in the UK and France, increased public and scientific attention on 2026's temperature ranking, supporting market moves toward higher probabilities for 2026 being among the hottest years.
UK and France experience record-breaking May temperatures amid persistent heatwave
2 rises to 63%3%
Record high temperatures in the UK and France during May 2026 highlighted the ongoing extreme heat events linked to climate change, supporting market expectations of 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
Climate scientist James Hansen reiterates 2026 likely to be hottest year on record
2 rises to 63%3%
James Hansen publicly reaffirmed his projection that 2026 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year, citing high climate sensitivity and ongoing El Niño effects, which bolstered market confidence in the top ranking outcome.
Climate experts forecast 2026 as second warmest year, El Niño impact expected
2 rises to 65%2%
Climate experts including Zeke Hausfather projected 2026 to be the second warmest year on record, with a strong El Niño expected to raise temperatures further. This tempered some market expectations for 2026 being the hottest, reflected in price adjustments.
Leading scientist James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
1 jumps to 41%5%
James Hansen, a prominent climate scientist, predicted in mid-June that 2026 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year due to climate change and a strong El Niño effect. This authoritative forecast likely influenced market sentiment, increasing the probability of 2026 being the hottest year.
Climate scientist James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
1 drops to 27%7%
James Hansen publicly predicted that 2026 would surpass the 2024 record to become the hottest year on record, influencing market expectations and increasing the probability of 2026 ranking first.
Weather.com reports record-breaking early heat waves in Europe and US in 2026
2 rises to 60%4%
Reports of unprecedented heat waves in Europe and the US during early 2026 highlighted the ongoing warming trend and supported market optimism for 2026 being among the hottest years.
James Hansen reiterates 2026 will eclipse 2024 temperature record
2 jumps to 70%14%
James Hansen published an updated analysis reaffirming that 2026 should exceed the 2024 temperature record by a significant margin, citing ocean temperature anomalies and energy imbalance. This reinforced market confidence in the '2' outcome as the most likely rank for 2026.
James Hansen projects 2026 likely to be hottest year on record due to strong El Niño
2 rises to 63%1%
James Hansen's physics-based analysis projected 2026 as likely the warmest year on record, driven by a strong El Niño and high climate sensitivity, which influenced market optimism for 2026 ranking first.
James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
2 jumps to 62%7%
Climate scientist James Hansen publicly predicted that 2026 would surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, citing both climate change and a strong El Niño effect. This statement likely boosted market confidence in 2026 ranking as the hottest or second hottest year.
James Hansen reiterates 2026 on track to be hottest year despite cooler start
In a detailed update, James Hansen reaffirmed that 2026 is on track to exceed 2024's temperature record, despite 2026 running cooler so far. This statement reinforced market confidence in the highest rank for 2026.
James Hansen updates projection: 2026 to exceed 2024 temperature record
1 jumps to 68%5%
James Hansen published an updated analysis reinforcing his projection that 2026 will surpass 2024 in global temperature, despite early months being cooler. This sustained expert endorsement helped maintain market confidence in the top ranking for 2026.
James Hansen projects 2026 to exceed 2024 temperature record
2 dips to 66%1%
Climate scientist James Hansen published a projection that 2026 would exceed the 2024 temperature record, boosting market belief in 2026 being the hottest year on record or at least second hottest.
Leading scientist James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
2 jumps to 67%11%
James Hansen publicly predicted that 2026 would surpass 2024 as the hottest year due to climate change and a strong El Niño, challenging some other forecasts that placed 2026 as second hottest. This statement likely boosted market confidence in 2026 ranking as number 1 or 2.
NOAA issues El Niño Advisory, confirming El Niño presence and strengthening
2 jumps to 70%11%
NOAA officially announced the presence of El Niño in June 2026 and forecasted its strengthening, which typically raises global temperatures. This announcement significantly increased market confidence that 2026 would rank very high among the hottest years.
May 2026 recorded as second-warmest May globally, NOAA projects 95% chance 2026 in top four
2 jumps to 63%6%
NOAA's June report showed May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record globally and projected a 95% chance that 2026 would rank among the four warmest years. This strong data further boosted market confidence in the '2' outcome.
NOAA reports May 2026 as second-warmest May on record globally
2 jumps to 67%8%
NOAA's report that May 2026 was the second-warmest May on record globally, with ocean temperatures at record highs, reinforced market confidence that 2026 would be among the top hottest years.
NOAA confirms El Niño conditions developing and expected to strengthen
2 rises to 63%4%
NOAA announced that El Niño conditions had developed in the tropical Pacific and were expected to strengthen into late 2026, increasing the likelihood of record high global temperatures and influencing market confidence in 2026's ranking.
June 2026 is second hottest June on record, NOAA reports
2 jumps to 67%7%
NOAA and NASA reported June 2026 as the second hottest June on record, just behind 2024, with global ocean surface temperatures reaching an all-time high for the month. This bolstered market confidence that 2026 would rank among the top hottest years.
WMO issues El Niño update with 80% likelihood for June-August 2026
2 jumps to 63%7%
The World Meteorological Organization announced a high probability of El Niño conditions developing mid-2026, which typically raises global temperatures, supporting market confidence in 2026 being among the hottest years.
May 2026 recorded as second-warmest May globally by NASA and Copernicus
2 rises to 57%4%
NASA and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service rated May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, with global sea surface temperatures also at record highs, supporting the view that 2026 will rank among the hottest years.
Scientists report world's oceans experienced hottest June ever observed
2 jumps to 67%5%
Reports from Copernicus Climate Change Service and EU monitors indicated the oceans had their warmest June on record, with El Niño expected to push temperatures higher, supporting expectations of 2026 as a top hottest year.
Europe experiences record-breaking early heatwave in May 2026
2 rises to 60%3%
Western Europe faced an unusually early and intense heatwave in May 2026, with temperatures significantly above average, supporting market expectations of 2026 being among the hottest years.
Leading scientist James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
1 jumps to 59%7%
James Hansen, a prominent climate scientist, predicted that 2026 would be the hottest year on record due to ongoing anthropogenic warming and a strong El Niño event. This authoritative forecast influenced market prices, increasing confidence in 2026's top ranking.
Time: Polymarket gives 31 % chance 2026 will be hottest year
2 jumps to 62%5%
Time reported that Polymarket’s market gave a 31 % chance of 2026 being the hottest year and a 60 % chance of being second‑hottest. The relatively high probability of ranking #2 kept outcome 2’s price near its peak.
NOAA reports positive North Atlantic Oscillation and persistent above-average sea surface temperatures
2 rises to 63%1%
NOAA's ocean monitoring report noted a positive North Atlantic Oscillation index and generally above-average sea surface temperatures, factors contributing to global warming trends. This data supported market confidence in 2026 being among the hottest years, sustaining high prices for the second hottest outcome.
NOAA officially declares El Niño, boosting expectations for 2026 warmth
2 jumps to 68%7%
NOAA declared an El Niño event in early June 2026, a climatological pattern known to increase global temperatures, which raised confidence that 2026 would rank among the top five hottest years, influencing market prices accordingly.
UN climate chief highlights extreme heat in Europe as a sign of worsening climate crisis
2 rises to 60%3%
Simon Stiell, UN climate chief, emphasized that human-induced climate change is making heatwaves more frequent and extreme, reinforcing the market's confidence in a high ranking for 2026's temperature.
UN warns world almost certain to endure record hot year by 2030
2 rises to 45%3%
The Guardian reported on the WMO forecast emphasizing a 75% chance that the five-year average from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and highlighted the predicted El Niño at the end of 2026, which increased expectations for record-breaking temperatures in 2027. This reinforced market expectations for 2026's high ranking.
UN WMO report predicts 86% chance of a year hotter than 2024 between 2026-2030
2 jumps to 63%7%
The UN's World Meteorological Organization released a report forecasting an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, with a predicted El Niño at the end of 2026 increasing the likelihood of 2027 being the hottest. This reinforced market expectations for 2026 to be among the hottest years, supporting the second-place ranking.
UN report warns 86% chance of year between 2026-2030 surpassing 2024 as hottest
2 jumps to 63%6%
The UN, via the WMO and UK Met Office, released a report forecasting an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, largely due to the expected El Niño. This heightened market belief in 2026's high temperature ranking.
UN report warns of record hot years likely by 2030, with 2026 in the lead
2 rises to 60%4%
The UN World Meteorological Organization released a report predicting an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year, with 2026 strongly in contention due to El Niño and climate change.
UN WMO report predicts high chance of record-breaking heat years including 2026
2 jumps to 62%6%
The World Meteorological Organization released a report forecasting an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year, with 2026 likely among the warmest due to climate change and El Niño. This report increased market confidence in 2026 ranking as second hottest.
UN warns record hot year almost certain by 2030, highlights 2026 heat waves
2 rises to 57%3%
The UN's warning about record heat and the ongoing European heat wave in May 2026 underscored the accelerating climate crisis, supporting market expectations that 2026 would rank among the hottest years.
UN and UK Met Office report predicts 86% chance 2026-2030 will include hottest year on record
The World Meteorological Organization and UK Met Office released a report forecasting an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded, citing ongoing climate change and an expected El Niño event. This bolstered market belief in 2026 ranking among the top hottest years.
UN report predicts 86% chance 2026-2030 will include hottest year on record
2 jumps to 69%9%
The UN World Meteorological Organization released a report stating an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year, increasing market confidence in 2026's high ranking.
UN and UK Met Office report predicts global temperatures near record levels through 2030
2 surges to 57%16%
The World Meteorological Organization and UK Met Office released a report forecasting an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded, with 2026 expected to be near record levels. This report increased market confidence in 2026 ranking among the hottest years.
Spring heatwave in Europe breaks records, fueling fears of hottest year
2 jumps to 56%10%
In late May, Europe experienced an unusually early and intense heatwave, with western France, England, and Wales seeing temperatures more than 10°C above average. This event underscored the ongoing warming trend and supported market confidence in 2026 being among the hottest years on record.
Europe experiences record-breaking early heat wave in 2026
2 rises to 57%1%
A persistent European heat wave broke records in May 2026, including the UK's hottest May temperature on record, signaling strong warming trends and supporting market expectations for a high 2026 ranking.
NASA data shows warmer sea surface temperatures in eastern tropical Pacific indicating El Niño development
2 jumps to 68%12%
NASA's May 26 data revealed warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, signaling the likely development of an El Niño event. This scientific evidence supported expectations of increased global temperatures in 2026, reinforcing market confidence in 2026 ranking as the second hottest year.
Europe experiences record early heatwave linked to warming and El Niño
2 jumps to 57%5%
A record-breaking early heatwave in Europe during May 2026 was linked by climate scientists to the combination of background warming and the emerging El Niño, signaling the potential for 2026 to be among the hottest years. This event likely reinforced market confidence in the second-place outcome.
NASA Earthdata shows warming in eastern equatorial Pacific indicating possible El Niño development
2 surges to 57%15%
A NASA Earthdata visualization from May 26, 2026, showed warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, confirming predictions of a developing El Niño event that could make 2026 one of the hottest years.
Europe experiences unprecedented May heatwave breaking multiple records
2 rises to 56%4%
Europe faced record-breaking May temperatures, including the UK’s hottest May day on record, reinforcing global warming trends and market confidence in a hot 2026.
WMO update confirms strong El Niño development likely in summer 2026
2 rises to 59%3%
The WMO's May 2026 update indicated that sea surface temperature anomalies were increasing, signaling a strong likelihood of El Niño conditions developing in summer 2026. This forecast raised market confidence that 2026 would be among the hottest years on record.
WMO reports rising chance of El Niño onset in mid-2026
2 surges to 56%20%
The World Meteorological Organization indicated a rising probability of El Niño developing by May–July 2026, which would likely increase global temperatures. This scientific update increased market prices for 2nd hottest year, reflecting expectations of strong warming but uncertainty about surpassing 2024.
Climate projections predict 2026 likely second to fourth warmest year
2 jumps to 62%6%
Carbon Brief published projections from multiple climate organizations predicting 2026 to be between the second and fourth warmest year on record, which aligned with market price increases for 2026 ranking second hottest and declines for first and third.
April 2026 recorded as third or fourth warmest April on record by NASA and NOAA
2 rises to 57%3%
NASA and NOAA reported April 2026 as the third or fourth warmest April on record, with global average temperatures ranking fifth highest for January-April 2026, supporting the view that 2026 will be among the hottest years.
May 2026 recorded as second warmest May on record
2 rises to 56%1%
NOAA and NASA data showed May 2026 as the second warmest May on record, reinforcing the trend of high temperatures in 2026 and increasing confidence in a top ranking for the year.
NOAA reports May 2026 as second-warmest May on record with strong El Niño developing
2 rises to 57%3%
NOAA's report of May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, alongside El Niño development, reinforced expectations of 2026 ranking among the hottest years, pushing market prices higher for top ranks.
Octagon AI warns strong El Niño needed for 2026 to beat record
3 plunges to 3%37%
Octagon AI’s analysis noted that a strong late‑year El Niño would be required for 2026 to set a new record, reminding traders that the outcome could still be lower than #2, which modestly lifted the price of outcome 3.
NOAA reports May 2026 global temperatures remain above average but not record-breaking
2 jumps to 63%7%
NOAA's ongoing monthly temperature analyses showed continued above-average global temperatures in May 2026, consistent with expectations that 2026 would be among the hottest years but not surpassing 2025 or 2024. This maintained market confidence in the '2' outcome while reducing likelihood of '1'.
Record heatwave sweeps South Asia amid global warming concerns
2 rises to 57%2%
A severe heatwave in South Asia underscored the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme heat events due to climate change, supporting market expectations of 2026 being among the hottest years.
UN report forecasts 86% chance of a year between 2026-2030 surpassing 2024 as hottest year
2 jumps to 53%12%
The World Meteorological Organization and UK Met Office released a report stating there is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will be hotter than 2024, reinforcing expectations that 2026 could be the hottest year on record.
NOAA and NASA confirm strong El Niño developing, boosting 2026 temperature forecasts
2 jumps to 59%6%
NOAA and NASA reported strengthening El Niño conditions expected to raise global temperatures in late 2026 and 2027. This increased the likelihood of 2026 ranking among the hottest years, supporting the market's preference for '2' and '1' outcomes.
Europe Experiences Severe Spring Heat Wave Raising Record Heat Concerns
2 jumps to 57%7%
A significant spring heat wave in Europe heightened concerns about 2026 potentially becoming the hottest year on record, reinforcing market sentiment favoring a top ranking for 2026 in global temperature records.
WMO reports rapid warming trend and El Niño emergence likely by May-July 2026
2 rises to 56%3%
The World Meteorological Organization's seasonal climate update indicated a rapid warming trend and a nearly unanimous forecast for El Niño emergence by May-July 2026. This reinforced expectations of a hot year, boosting market prices for 2026 ranking as the second hottest year.
World Meteorological Organization warns 86% chance of a new hottest year by 2030, with 2026 in focus
2 jumps to 55%12%
The WMO report highlighted an 86% chance that one of the next five years, including 2026, will surpass 2024 as the warmest year, reinforcing market confidence in a top ranking for 2026.
Independent Analyses Confirm 2025 as Third Warmest Year on Record
2 jumps to 59%5%
NASA and other independent organizations confirmed 2025 as the third warmest year, reinforcing the trend of recent record warmth. This confirmation likely influenced market participants to favor 2026 ranking near the top, supporting the '2' outcome price increase.
WMO seasonal climate update projects rapid warming trend toward El Niño by May-July 2026
2 jumps to 57%5%
The World Meteorological Organization's seasonal update indicated a rapid warming trend in the Niño 3.4 region, forecasting a nearly unanimous trajectory toward El Niño conditions by May-July 2026, reinforcing expectations of elevated global temperatures and supporting the market's increased confidence in 2026 ranking as the second hottest year.
NOAA reports positive North Atlantic Oscillation index and ocean temperature anomalies
2 rises to 56%2%
NOAA's report of a positive NAO index and ongoing ocean temperature anomalies indicated sustained warm ocean conditions, reinforcing expectations of a very warm 2026 and supporting the market's increased confidence in 2026 ranking 2nd hottest.
Climate scientist James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
2 jumps to 46%8%
James Hansen publicly predicted 2026 would surpass 2024 as the hottest year, citing climate change and a strong El Niño, boosting market confidence in the '1' and '2' rank outcomes.
UN and UK Met Office report predicts near-record global temperatures through 2030
2 jumps to 59%5%
The UN and UK Met Office released a report forecasting that global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will remain at or near record levels, increasing market confidence that 2026 will rank among the hottest years.
James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
1 jumps to 35%8%
Climate scientist James Hansen publicly predicted that 2026 would surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, citing high climate sensitivity and underestimated aerosol cooling. This expert statement significantly boosted market confidence in the '1' outcome.
Leading scientist James Hansen predicts 2026 will be hottest year on record
1 rises to 34%1%
James Hansen publicly predicted that 2026 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, citing high climate sensitivity and reduced aerosol cooling, which strongly influenced market expectations for 2026 to rank number 1.
James Hansen predicts 2026 will be the warmest year on record
2 jumps to 70%14%
James Hansen posted a technical note arguing that 2026 was on track to become the warmest year, emphasizing the upcoming El Niño. The bullish scientific prediction reinforced confidence in outcome 2, pushing its price higher.
WMO cites Hausfather: 2026 has 26 % chance of being the hottest year
2 jumps to 56%11%
A WMO blog post cited Hausfather’s analysis that gave 2026 a 26 % chance of becoming the hottest year. The moderate probability sustained market interest in outcome 2, preventing a sharp drop in its price.
Leading scientists predict 2026 will be hottest year on record due to climate change and El Niño
2 jumps to 41%8%
Scientists including James Hansen predicted 2026 would surpass 2024 as the hottest year, driven by climate change and a strong El Niño event expected to raise global temperatures further, influencing market expectations for 2026's ranking.
James Hansen projects 2026 likely to be warmest year on record
1 jumps to 32%11%
Climate scientist James Hansen published a physics-based analysis projecting 2026 to surpass 2024 as the warmest year, citing high climate sensitivity and energy imbalance. This boosted market confidence in the '1' outcome temporarily, though uncertainty remained.
James Hansen projects 2026 will surpass 2024 as hottest year on record
1 dips to 31%2%
Climate scientist James Hansen and colleagues published a projection that 2026 would exceed the 2024 monthly temperature record, making 2026 the hottest year on record. This physics-based assessment, emphasizing high climate sensitivity and reduced aerosol cooling, influenced market confidence in the top rank for 2026.
UN WMO report predicts 86% chance of a year between 2026-2030 surpassing 2024's heat record
2 jumps to 55%10%
The World Meteorological Organization's report increased confidence in a new record hot year soon, citing a strong likelihood that 2026 or a subsequent year would surpass 2024, boosting market confidence in 2026's high ranking.
Monthly Climate Report indicates continued high global temperatures in early 2026
2 jumps to 55%9%
The National Centers for Environmental Information released monthly climate summaries showing sustained elevated global temperatures in early 2026, supporting the market's increased probability for 2026 ranking as the 2nd hottest year.
WMO issues alert for possible early onset of strong El Niño in mid-2026
2 jumps to 46%5%
The World Meteorological Organization warned that an El Niño event could develop as early as May to July 2026, likely causing above-normal global land temperatures. This alert increased market confidence that 2026 would rank among the hottest years, boosting the probability of the second-place outcome.
Carbon Brief Forecasts 2026 Temperature Ranking with El Niño Influence
2 surges to 56%17%
Carbon Brief published a forecast estimating a 19% chance that 2026 would be the warmest year on record and a 62% chance it would be the second warmest, based on aggregated El Niño projections and global temperature models. This forecast influenced market prices by increasing confidence in 2026 being among the hottest years, particularly second place.
Carbon Brief updates 2026 temperature forecast amid European heat wave
2 jumps to 55%9%
Carbon Brief updated its forecast on April 21, 2026, emphasizing the impact of a spring heat wave in Europe and the likely return of El Niño, increasing the probability of 2026 being the second hottest year. This news contributed to a price increase for the 2nd hottest year outcome.
Carbon Brief: 2026 has 62 % chance of being the second‑warmest year on record
1 drops to 27%6%
Carbon Brief published a forecast giving 2026 a 19 % chance of being the warmest year and a 62 % chance of being the second‑warmest. The strong El Niño outlook shifted sentiment toward outcomes 1 and 2, pulling price down for outcome 1 and up for outcome 2.
Carbon Brief forecasts 2026 likely second hottest year due to El Niño
2 jumps to 60%5%
Carbon Brief published a forecast estimating a 19% chance of 2026 being the hottest year and a 62% chance of it being the second hottest, driven by an anticipated El Niño event. This forecast increased confidence in 2026 ranking as the second hottest year, boosting the market price for that outcome.
Carbon Brief forecasts 2026 as second-hottest year with 19% chance of hottest
2 rises to 40%4%
On April 21, Carbon Brief forecasted that 2026 has a 19% chance of being the hottest year and a 62% chance of being the second hottest, estimating global average temperature at 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels. This forecast influenced market prices, increasing confidence in 2026 being among the top hottest years but not necessarily the hottest.
Carbon Brief forecasts 19% chance 2026 will be hottest year, 62% chance second hottest
2 jumps to 51%9%
Carbon Brief published a forecast estimating a 19% chance that 2026 would be the warmest year on record and a 62% chance it would be the second warmest, based on global average temperature projections and El Niño modeling. This forecast influenced market prices by increasing confidence in the '2' outcome and reducing belief in '1'.
Positive North Atlantic Oscillation index noted in early 2026
2 jumps to 62%9%
The North Atlantic Oscillation index was positive since February 2026, influencing sea surface temperature anomalies and contributing to warmer ocean conditions, which supported expectations of a high temperature ranking for 2026.
April 2026 ranks as fourth-warmest April on record globally
2 jumps to 47%6%
April 2026 was the fourth-warmest April on record worldwide, with widespread above-average temperatures and ocean heat, supporting market expectations for a very hot 2026.
NASA updates GISTEMP v4 with latest temperature data
2 jumps to 62%9%
NASA updated its GISTEMP version 4 dataset with recent temperature data, reinforcing the trend of high global temperatures and supporting the market's expectation that 2026 would be the second hottest year on record.
NOAA Confirms 2025 as Third Warmest Year on Record
2 rises to 56%2%
NOAA and other independent analyses confirmed that 2025 was the third warmest year on record, reinforcing the trend of recent record warmth. This confirmation supported market confidence that 2026 would rank very high, sustaining the elevated price for the '2' outcome.
NOAA confirms continued warming trend in early 2026 global temperature data
2 jumps to 62%9%
NOAA's monthly climate reports in early 2026 confirmed ongoing high global temperatures consistent with 2026 being among the hottest years on record. This reinforced market confidence in the 2nd hottest year outcome and reduced probabilities for lower ranks.
NOAA monthly climate report shows continued high global temperatures in early 2026
2 jumps to 61%8%
NOAA's monthly climate summaries for early 2026 indicated sustained elevated global temperatures, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would be among the hottest years. This contributed to the market's increased pricing for the 2nd hottest year outcome.
NOAA Confirms Continued Global Temperature Rise in Early 2026
2 jumps to 54%13%
NOAA's monthly climate reports in early 2026 confirmed ongoing elevated global temperatures, supporting market expectations that 2026 would rank among the hottest years. This contributed to the sustained high price for the '2' outcome and decline in lower rank options.
NOAA and NASA report April 2026 as among the warmest Aprils on record
2 jumps to 52%10%
NOAA reported April 2026 as the fourth warmest April and NASA/Copernicus rated it the third warmest, with global-average temperature for January-April 2026 being the fifth highest on record. This reinforced market expectations of 2026 ranking high among hottest years.
NOAA reports April 2026 as fourth-warmest April on record
2 jumps to 54%13%
NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information reported April 2026 as the fourth-warmest April on record, with NASA and Copernicus rating it the third-warmest, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would rank among the top hottest years.
NOAA reports March 2026 as second warmest March on record, supporting high 2026 temperature ranking
2 rises to 43%3%
NOAA's report that March 2026 tied with 2024 as the second warmest March on record indicated strong early-year warmth, increasing confidence that 2026 will rank among the top five hottest years.
NASA and NOAA confirm 2025 as third warmest year globally
2 jumps to 59%5%
NASA and NOAA, along with other independent analyses, confirmed 2025 as the third warmest year on record, setting a benchmark for 2026. This confirmation supported market confidence that 2026 would rank near the top but not necessarily as the hottest year.
March 2026 ranks as fourth warmest March on record
2 rises to 43%2%
NOAA and NASA reported March 2026 as the fourth warmest March on record, with global average temperatures among the highest ever recorded for the month. This data supported market expectations of 2026 being a top warm year.
WMO reports likely El Niño development mid-2026, boosting global temperatures
2 jumps to 56%10%
The World Meteorological Organization reported a high confidence in the onset of El Niño conditions from mid-2026, expected to increase global temperatures and influence 2026 to be among the warmest years, driving market expectations upward.
Met Office and experts predict 2026 among second to fourth warmest years
2 jumps to 54%12%
Temperature projections from the Met Office, NASA's Dr Gavin Schmidt, and Berkeley Earth forecast 2026 to be between the second and fourth warmest years on record, supporting market moves favoring 2026 ranking 2nd hottest rather than 1st or lower.
NOAA reports positive North Atlantic Oscillation index and ocean temperature anomalies
2 jumps to 55%13%
NOAA's report in early 2026 indicated a positive North Atlantic Oscillation index and ongoing ocean temperature anomalies, which are factors contributing to elevated global temperatures. This reinforced market expectations that 2026 would remain among the hottest years, supporting the '2' ranking.
Positive North Atlantic Oscillation index and ocean temperature anomalies reported
2 jumps to 53%11%
NOAA reported a positive NAO index since February 2026 and detailed ocean temperature anomalies, indicating ongoing ocean warming trends that support expectations of 2026 being among the hottest years, reinforcing market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
March 2026 tied as second-warmest March on record, El Niño watch continues
2 jumps to 41%5%
NOAA reported March 2026 as tied with 2024 for the second-warmest March on record, with El Niño conditions likely to emerge soon. This early-year data supported expectations for a very warm 2026, influencing market prices upward for top rankings.
NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset (NOAAGlobalTemp) Version 6.1 released
2 rises to 42%2%
NOAA released the updated NOAAGlobalTemp Version 6.1 dataset, which combines ocean and land temperature data to produce a globally complete surface temperature dataset for analysis of 2026 temperatures.
NOAA releases AI-enhanced Global Surface Temperature Dataset version 6.1
2 rises to 56%4%
NOAA announced the transition to an AI-based version 6.1 of the NOAAGlobalTemp dataset, improving accuracy and completeness of global temperature data. This update increased confidence in temperature measurements for 2026, supporting market pricing favoring 2026 ranking as second hottest rather than first.
NOAA releases updated global surface temperature dataset version 6.1
2 jumps to 56%14%
NOAA published an updated version of their Global Surface Temperature Dataset, improving spatial coverage and data quality, which reinforced confidence in temperature rankings and supported the market's favoring of 2026 as the second hottest year.
NOAA Updates NOAAGlobalTemp Dataset to Version 6.1.0 with AI-Based Reconstruction
NOAA updated its NOAAGlobalTemp dataset to version 6.1.0, incorporating artificial neural networks for both land and sea surface temperature reconstruction, enhancing the dataset's accuracy and completeness.
NOAA releases updated Global Surface Temperature Dataset version 6.1 with AI enhancements
2 jumps to 47%10%
NOAA published version 6.1 of its Global Surface Temperature Dataset, incorporating artificial intelligence to improve accuracy and completeness. This update increased confidence in temperature measurements for 2026, influencing market prices to favor 2026 ranking as the 2nd hottest year.
NOAA releases version 6.1 of Global Surface Temperature Dataset with AI enhancements
2 surges to 56%15%
NOAA published an updated global temperature dataset (NOAAGlobalTemp v6.1) incorporating artificial neural networks for improved accuracy. This update increased confidence in temperature measurements and influenced market expectations about 2026's ranking among hottest years.
NOAA Releases AI-Enhanced Global Surface Temperature Dataset Version 6.1
2 jumps to 41%5%
NOAA published version 6.1 of its Global Surface Temperature Dataset, incorporating artificial intelligence to improve accuracy. This methodological advancement increased confidence in temperature data quality, influencing market prices by reinforcing expectations about 2026's temperature ranking, particularly boosting the '2' outcome.
March 2026 becomes hottest March on record in the US
2 rises to 43%4%
March 2026 shattered temperature records across the US, with the warmest March ever recorded, driving market confidence that 2026 will be among the hottest years globally.
NOAA: March 2026 ties for second‑warmest March on record
2 jumps to 45%5%
NOAA’s monthly climate report highlighted March 2026 as the fourth‑warmest March on record, with a 2.36 °F departure. The strong early‑year signal increased belief that 2026 could rank in the top‑two, boosting outcome 2 and weakening outcome 3.
NOAA reports March 2026 as second-warmest March on record, year-to-date fourth highest
2 jumps to 52%10%
NOAA's March 2026 Global Temperature Percentiles report indicated that March 2026 tied with 2024 as the second-warmest March on record and that the January–March global surface temperature was the fourth highest on record. This supported market expectations that 2026 would be among the top hottest years but not the hottest, reinforcing the '2' outcome.
Hottest winter temperature ever recorded in the US at Falcon Dam, Texas
2 jumps to 39%12%
A record-breaking winter temperature of 106°F was recorded in South Texas, highlighting the extreme warmth in early 2026 and reinforcing expectations for a very hot year overall.
WMO reports fading La Niña, rising chance of El Niño by mid-2026
2 rises to 39%3%
The World Meteorological Organization reported that weak La Niña conditions were fading and that there was an increasing probability of El Niño developing by mid-2026. This shift is known to increase global temperatures, boosting market expectations for 2026's high temperature ranking.
Met Office and climate experts project 2026 temperature ranking
2 surges to 53%17%
The Met Office, NASA's Dr. Gavin Schmidt, Berkeley Earth, and Carbon Brief published projections indicating 2026 would likely be between the second and fourth warmest years on record, which increased market confidence in the second place outcome.
NASA confirms 2024, 2025, and 2023 as top three hottest years on record
2 rises to 39%3%
NASA's GISS Surface Temperature Analysis update highlighted 2024, 2025, and 2023 as the three warmest years in their 146-year record, setting a recent high baseline for global temperatures and influencing market expectations for 2026's ranking.
NASA updates global temperature record confirming 2025 as third warmest year
2 jumps to 42%6%
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio released updated GISTEMP v4 data confirming 2025 as the third warmest year on record, influencing market expectations about 2026's relative ranking and increasing confidence in 2026 being among the top hottest years.
NASA confirms 2025 as one of the three warmest years on record
2 jumps to 42%6%
NASA's GISS Surface Temperature Analysis highlighted 2025, 2024, and 2023 as the three warmest years in their 146-year record, reinforcing the trend of rising global temperatures and supporting market expectations for 2026 to rank highly among hottest years.
NASA visualizes 2025‑2023 as three hottest years in its 146‑year record
2 surges to 65%26%
NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio released a graphic showing 2025, 2024 and 2023 as the three hottest years on record. The visual reminder of recent record‑breaking years pushed traders toward the belief that 2026 would rank near the top, driving the price of outcome 2 upward.
NASA Releases Updated GISTEMP v4 Global Temperature Visualization
NASA published an updated visualization of GISTEMP v4, confirming 2025, 2024, and 2023 as the three warmest years in its 146-year record, providing authoritative climate data that influenced market expectations.
NASA publishes updated global temperature analysis highlighting 2023-2025 as hottest years
2 rises to 42%3%
NASA's GISS Surface Temperature Analysis version 4 was updated, showing 2023, 2024, and 2025 as the three warmest years on record, influencing market expectations that 2026 might not surpass these years, thus affecting the ranking probabilities.
NASA updates show 2025 as third warmest year, 2026 forecast uncertain
1 drops to 21%12%
NASA and other agencies confirmed 2025 as the third warmest year on record, with 2026's ranking uncertain but expected to be high. This tempered expectations for 2026 being the hottest, causing some market price volatility and a dip in the '1' outcome.
NASA confirms 2025 as third warmest year, highlighting recent temperature trends
2 jumps to 53%14%
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio published an update confirming that 2025 was the third warmest year on record, reinforcing expectations that 2026 would be very warm but unlikely to surpass the hottest year. This contributed to market confidence in 2026 ranking as the 2nd hottest year rather than the hottest.
NASA highlights 2025, 2024, and 2023 as warmest years in 146-year record
2 jumps to 42%6%
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio published an analysis confirming 2025 as the warmest year on record, followed by 2024 and 2023, setting a context that 2026 was unlikely to surpass these years. This reinforced market confidence in 2026 ranking second hottest rather than first, contributing to price increases for the '2' outcome and declines for '1'.
NASA highlights 2023-2025 as the three warmest years on record
2 jumps to 41%5%
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio published an update emphasizing that 2023, 2024, and 2025 were the warmest years in their 146-year record, setting a context for expectations about 2026's temperature ranking. This reinforced market confidence that 2026 would rank near the top but likely not surpass these years, supporting the rise in the '2' outcome price.
NASA confirms 2023, 2024, and 2025 as the three warmest years on record
2 jumps to 46%7%
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio published an update highlighting that 2023, 2024, and 2025 were the three warmest years in their 146-year record, setting a context that made 2026 being the hottest year less likely, thus impacting market prices.
NASA highlights 2023, 2024, and 2025 as the three warmest years in record
2 rises to 38%2%
NASA's visualization emphasized that 2024 remains the hottest year on record, with 2025 and 2023 close behind, reinforcing expectations that 2026 could challenge these records, impacting market confidence in 2026's ranking.
NASA Confirms 2023-2025 as Warmest Years on Record
2 rises to 38%2%
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio published data confirming that 2023, 2024, and 2025 were the three warmest years in their 146-year record, setting a recent high baseline for global temperatures. This context influenced market perceptions about 2026's potential ranking.
NASA confirms 2025 as third‑warmest year on record
2 jumps to 41%7%
NASA released a press statement confirming that 2025 was the third‑warmest year, reinforcing the narrative that recent years are clustering at the top of the record. This raised expectations that 2026 would be near the top, nudging the market toward outcome 2.
NASA analysis shows 2025 slightly warmer than 2023, 2024 hottest on record
2 rises to 46%3%
NASA scientists released data showing 2025 was slightly warmer than 2023 but cooler than 2024, the hottest year on record. This data reinforced the ongoing warming trend and influenced market confidence in 2026's high ranking.
2025 confirmed as one of the warmest years on record
2 rises to 38%2%
Scientists announced that 2025 was either the second or third hottest year on record, continuing the trend of rising global temperatures and supporting market confidence in 2026 being among the hottest years.
NASA releases data showing 2025 as third warmest year, with 2026 forecasted among top warmest
2 rises to 40%2%
NASA's release of global temperature data confirmed 2025 as the third warmest year on record and highlighted projections that 2026 would be among the four warmest years, reinforcing market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NASA releases 2025 global temperature data confirming 2024 as hottest year on record
NASA published its annual global temperature data showing 2025 was slightly warmer than 2023 but cooler than 2024, which remains the hottest year on record. This release set the baseline for expectations about 2026's ranking and confirmed ongoing warming trends.
NOAA reports 2025 as Earth's 3rd-warmest year, forecasts 2026 likely top five warmest
1 drops to 28%5%
NOAA's January 2026 report confirmed 2025 as the third-warmest year on record and forecasted a less than 1% chance that 2026 would surpass 2024 as the hottest year, but a 75% chance of being in the top five. This tempered expectations and influenced market prices, reducing confidence in 2026 being the hottest year.
NASA confirms 2025 as third warmest year on record
2 rises to 40%1%
NASA released data confirming that 2025 was the third warmest year on record, slightly warmer than 2023 but within margin of error. This reinforced expectations that 2026 would continue the trend of high global temperatures, influencing market confidence in 2026 ranking near the top.
NASA releases 2025 global temperature data confirming third warmest year on record
2 rises to 40%1%
NASA published its full dataset showing 2025 as the third warmest year, slightly warmer than 2023 but within margin of error. This data set the baseline for expectations about 2026's ranking and influenced market pricing toward 2026 being among the top hottest years.
NASA releases January 2026 global temperature data showing cooler start than 2024
2 drops to 27%6%
NASA's January 2026 data showed a cooler start compared to 2024, tempering expectations for 2026 to be the hottest year and causing some market price fluctuations.
NOAA Releases January 2026 Global Temperature and Precipitation Analysis
2 jumps to 64%10%
NOAA released its January 2026 Global Temperature and Precipitation Analysis, transitioning the NOAAGlobalTemp dataset to version 6.1.0 with AI-based reconstruction methods, which improved the accuracy of global temperature data.
NASA confirms 2024 as hottest year on record, 2025 slightly warmer than 2023
2 dips to 36%3%
NASA released global temperature data showing 2024 remains the hottest year since 1880, with 2025 slightly warmer than 2023 but within margin of error. This reinforced the view that 2026 would need strong warming to surpass 2024, influencing market prices to favor 2nd hottest rather than 1st.
NASA confirms 2025 among three hottest years on record, warming trend continues
2 rises to 40%1%
NASA's analysis confirmed that 2025 was one of the three warmest years recorded, continuing a trend of rising global temperatures. This reinforced expectations that 2026 would also be very warm, influencing market confidence in a high ranking for 2026.
NASA releases updated global temperature data confirming 2025 as third warmest year
2 dips to 36%3%
NASA published its GISS Surface Temperature Analysis version 4 (GISTEMP v4) data, confirming 2025 as the third warmest year on record, setting the context for 2026 temperature expectations. This data release influenced market perceptions about 2026's potential ranking.
NASA releases global temperature data showing 2025 near record warmth
2 rises to 41%2%
NASA's January 2026 release confirmed that 2025 was the third warmest year on record, slightly warmer than 2023, setting a recent baseline for 2026 expectations. This data supported market confidence that 2026 would continue the trend of high global temperatures.
WMO confirms 2025 among three warmest years on record
2 jumps to 43%7%
The World Meteorological Organization confirmed 2025 as one of the three warmest years on record, reinforcing the trend of extraordinary global temperatures and supporting forecasts that 2026 would continue this pattern of high temperatures.
NASA publishes updated GISTEMP v4 global temperature analysis through 2025
2 jumps to 44%5%
NASA released the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis version 4 (GISTEMP v4) data including 2025 temperatures, confirming recent years as the hottest on record and setting context for 2026 expectations. This bolstered market confidence in 2026 ranking near the top but not necessarily the hottest year.
Scientists report 2025 ocean heat content hits record high
2 rises to 41%2%
New research in early January 2026 found that ocean heat content reached record levels in 2025, raising the planet's baseline temperature and increasing the likelihood that 2026 would be among the hottest years. This scientific finding supported market expectations for a high ranking of 2026's temperature.
UK Met Office confirms 2025 as UK's hottest and sunniest year on record
2 rises to 38%2%
The UK national weather service confirmed that 2025 was the hottest and sunniest year on record, demonstrating the ongoing impact of climate change and setting a context for expectations of 2026's temperature ranking.
NASA and NOAA confirm 2025 as third warmest year on record
2 rises to 41%2%
NASA and NOAA released data confirming that 2025 was the third warmest year on record, setting a recent high baseline for global temperatures and influencing market expectations for 2026's ranking.
Record-breaking warm Christmas temperatures across the US
2 dips to 36%3%
Unprecedented warmth was recorded across many US states on Christmas Day 2025, with multiple locations setting new high temperature records, signaling an ongoing trend of extreme heat that contributed to market expectations for a hot 2026.
Copernicus Climate Service confirms 2025 as third hottest year on record
2 rises to 41%2%
The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that 2025 was the third hottest year globally, following 2024 and 2023, reinforcing the ongoing warming trend and setting the stage for expectations about 2026's temperature ranking.
NASA confirms 2025 among warmest years, 2024 remains hottest on record
2 rises to 40%1%
NASA's release of global temperature data confirmed that 2025 was slightly warmer than 2023 but still behind 2024, the hottest year on record. This set the baseline for market expectations that 2026 would compete closely with recent record highs.
NOAA and NASA confirm 2025 as third warmest year on record
NASA and NOAA released data confirming 2025 as the third warmest year on record, setting the context for expectations about 2026's temperature ranking and influencing early market positions.
Carbon Brief forecasts 2026 likely second-hottest year amid El Niño prospects
2 jumps to 46%7%
Carbon Brief published a forecast estimating a 19% chance of 2026 being the warmest year and a 62% chance of it being the second warmest, based on El Niño projections and global temperature models. This forecast increased market confidence in the 2nd hottest year outcome, reflected in rising prices.
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न