Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, alongside a resilient economy and futures markets pricing the fed funds rate toward 3.8% by November, has anchored trader sentiment around no policy change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The 61.5% implied probability for unchanged rates reflects the market's assessment that the Fed will maintain its current restrictive stance near 3.63% effective, given core CPI at 2.5% and limited evidence of further disinflation. Modest 19.5% odds for a 25 basis point hike capture expectations of potential tightening if price pressures reaccelerate, while the combined 20.3% probability for cuts highlights downside risks from any labor market softening. Upcoming September projections and CPI releases remain key swing factors for these probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNo change 62%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 5.9%
$34,028 Vol.
$34,028 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
6%
25 bps decrease
15%
No change
62%
25 bps increase
20%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 62%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 5.9%
$34,028 Vol.
$34,028 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$3,376 Vol.
6%
25 bps decrease
$7,417 Vol.
15%
No change
$13,728 Vol.
62%
25 bps increase
$8,045 Vol.
20%
50+ bps increase
$1,463 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, alongside a resilient economy and futures markets pricing the fed funds rate toward 3.8% by November, has anchored trader sentiment around no policy change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The 61.5% implied probability for unchanged rates reflects the market's assessment that the Fed will maintain its current restrictive stance near 3.63% effective, given core CPI at 2.5% and limited evidence of further disinflation. Modest 19.5% odds for a 25 basis point hike capture expectations of potential tightening if price pressures reaccelerate, while the combined 20.3% probability for cuts highlights downside risks from any labor market softening. Upcoming September projections and CPI releases remain key swing factors for these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$34,028Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 27, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, alongside a resilient economy and futures markets pricing the fed funds rate toward 3.8% by November, has anchored trader sentiment around no policy change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The 61.5% implied probability for unchanged rates reflects the market's assessment that the Fed will maintain its current restrictive stance near 3.63% effective, given core CPI at 2.5% and limited evidence of further disinflation. Modest 19.5% odds for a 25 basis point hike capture expectations of potential tightening if price pressures reaccelerate, while the combined 20.3% probability for cuts highlights downside risks from any labor market softening. Upcoming September projections and CPI releases remain key swing factors for these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$34,028Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 27, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, alongside a resilient economy and futures markets pricing the fed funds rate toward 3.8% by November, has anchored trader sentiment around no policy change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The 61.5% implied probability for unchanged rates reflects the market's assessment that the Fed will maintain its current restrictive stance near 3.63% effective, given core CPI at 2.5% and limited evidence of further disinflation. Modest 19.5% odds for a 25 basis point hike capture expectations of potential tightening if price pressures reaccelerate, while the combined 20.3% probability for cuts highlights downside risks from any labor market softening. Upcoming September projections and CPI releases remain key swing factors for these probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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