Persistent subtropical ridging and a strong heat dome over South Central Texas are sustaining extreme heat, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for mostly sunny skies and highs near 105°F on August 23 amid minimal cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures. Recent model consensus and observed trends through mid-to-late August, including multiple days above 103°F and heat advisories extending through Sunday, have concentrated trader focus on the 104–107°F range as the most likely outcomes under these stable atmospheric conditions. Historical August baselines around 95–100°F underscore the anomaly, while slight model spread on exact peak timing or minor steering shifts keeps lower probabilities on 102–103°F or 108°F-plus scenarios. Updated NWS briefings and ensemble runs ahead of the daily maximum will refine these market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Austin on August 23?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 23?
104-105°F 50%
106-107°F 31%
102-103°F 16%
108-109°F 12%
BARU
BARU
Aug 23, 2026
95°F or below
<1%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
3%
100-101°F
5%
102-103°F
16%
104-105°F
50%
106-107°F
31%
108-109°F
12%
110-111°F
3%
112-113°F
2%
114°F or higher
2%
104-105°F 50%
106-107°F 31%
102-103°F 16%
108-109°F 12%
BARU
BARU
Aug 23, 2026
95°F or below
$80 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$87 Vol.
1%
98-99°F
$21 Vol.
3%
100-101°F
$9 Vol.
5%
102-103°F
$23 Vol.
16%
104-105°F
$109 Vol.
50%
106-107°F
$10 Vol.
31%
108-109°F
$17 Vol.
12%
110-111°F
$17 Vol.
3%
112-113°F
$21 Vol.
2%
114°F or higher
$13 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent subtropical ridging and a strong heat dome over South Central Texas are sustaining extreme heat, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for mostly sunny skies and highs near 105°F on August 23 amid minimal cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures. Recent model consensus and observed trends through mid-to-late August, including multiple days above 103°F and heat advisories extending through Sunday, have concentrated trader focus on the 104–107°F range as the most likely outcomes under these stable atmospheric conditions. Historical August baselines around 95–100°F underscore the anomaly, while slight model spread on exact peak timing or minor steering shifts keeps lower probabilities on 102–103°F or 108°F-plus scenarios. Updated NWS briefings and ensemble runs ahead of the daily maximum will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$407Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 23, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent subtropical ridging and a strong heat dome over South Central Texas are sustaining extreme heat, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for mostly sunny skies and highs near 105°F on August 23 amid minimal cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures. Recent model consensus and observed trends through mid-to-late August, including multiple days above 103°F and heat advisories extending through Sunday, have concentrated trader focus on the 104–107°F range as the most likely outcomes under these stable atmospheric conditions. Historical August baselines around 95–100°F underscore the anomaly, while slight model spread on exact peak timing or minor steering shifts keeps lower probabilities on 102–103°F or 108°F-plus scenarios. Updated NWS briefings and ensemble runs ahead of the daily maximum will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$407Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 23, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent subtropical ridging and a strong heat dome over South Central Texas are sustaining extreme heat, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for mostly sunny skies and highs near 105°F on August 23 amid minimal cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures. Recent model consensus and observed trends through mid-to-late August, including multiple days above 103°F and heat advisories extending through Sunday, have concentrated trader focus on the 104–107°F range as the most likely outcomes under these stable atmospheric conditions. Historical August baselines around 95–100°F underscore the anomaly, while slight model spread on exact peak timing or minor steering shifts keeps lower probabilities on 102–103°F or 108°F-plus scenarios. Updated NWS briefings and ensemble runs ahead of the daily maximum will refine these market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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