**Recent cold air advection and widespread precipitation have driven the sharp cooldown in Chengdu, positioning 22–23°C as the dominant market-implied outcomes for the September 10 daily maximum.** A strong northerly surge has lowered regional temperatures by 5–11°C over 48 hours, with official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources projecting a high of 22–23°C under overcast skies, periods of moderate rain, and northerly winds of 10–20 km/h that limit daytime boundary-layer warming. Persistent cloud cover reduces incoming shortwave radiation while evaporative cooling from rain further caps the peak, consistent with ensemble guidance showing limited upward variance. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these values because the synoptic pattern favors a narrow temperature range, though slight model spread in rainfall timing or wind strength could allow a 24°C outlier if clearing occurs earlier than expected.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 10?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 10?
22°C 28%
23°C 26%
24°C 18%
21°C 12%
BARU
BARU
Sep 10, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
3%
20°C
6%
21°C
12%
22°C
28%
23°C
26%
24°C
18%
25°C
8%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
22°C 28%
23°C 26%
24°C 18%
21°C 12%
BARU
BARU
Sep 10, 2026
18°C or below
$165 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$586 Vol.
3%
20°C
$274 Vol.
6%
21°C
$193 Vol.
12%
22°C
$447 Vol.
28%
23°C
$231 Vol.
26%
24°C
$139 Vol.
18%
25°C
$429 Vol.
8%
26°C
$60 Vol.
2%
27°C
$311 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$487 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent cold air advection and widespread precipitation have driven the sharp cooldown in Chengdu, positioning 22–23°C as the dominant market-implied outcomes for the September 10 daily maximum.** A strong northerly surge has lowered regional temperatures by 5–11°C over 48 hours, with official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources projecting a high of 22–23°C under overcast skies, periods of moderate rain, and northerly winds of 10–20 km/h that limit daytime boundary-layer warming. Persistent cloud cover reduces incoming shortwave radiation while evaporative cooling from rain further caps the peak, consistent with ensemble guidance showing limited upward variance. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these values because the synoptic pattern favors a narrow temperature range, though slight model spread in rainfall timing or wind strength could allow a 24°C outlier if clearing occurs earlier than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$3,322Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 10, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent cold air advection and widespread precipitation have driven the sharp cooldown in Chengdu, positioning 22–23°C as the dominant market-implied outcomes for the September 10 daily maximum.** A strong northerly surge has lowered regional temperatures by 5–11°C over 48 hours, with official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources projecting a high of 22–23°C under overcast skies, periods of moderate rain, and northerly winds of 10–20 km/h that limit daytime boundary-layer warming. Persistent cloud cover reduces incoming shortwave radiation while evaporative cooling from rain further caps the peak, consistent with ensemble guidance showing limited upward variance. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these values because the synoptic pattern favors a narrow temperature range, though slight model spread in rainfall timing or wind strength could allow a 24°C outlier if clearing occurs earlier than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,322Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 10, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent cold air advection and widespread precipitation have driven the sharp cooldown in Chengdu, positioning 22–23°C as the dominant market-implied outcomes for the September 10 daily maximum.** A strong northerly surge has lowered regional temperatures by 5–11°C over 48 hours, with official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources projecting a high of 22–23°C under overcast skies, periods of moderate rain, and northerly winds of 10–20 km/h that limit daytime boundary-layer warming. Persistent cloud cover reduces incoming shortwave radiation while evaporative cooling from rain further caps the peak, consistent with ensemble guidance showing limited upward variance. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these values because the synoptic pattern favors a narrow temperature range, though slight model spread in rainfall timing or wind strength could allow a 24°C outlier if clearing occurs earlier than expected.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan