Recent forecasts for Mexico City on August 31, 2026, from agencies and models indicate daily highs most likely in the 20–25°C range, shaped by the city's high-elevation valley location (~2,240 m) and typical late-summer convective patterns. Widespread cloud cover, afternoon thunderstorms, and moisture from Pacific waves are expected to cap solar heating and prevent stronger warming, aligning with climatological averages near 23–24°C for the period. Current model runs show slight variations due to timing of rain bands, supporting the market's concentration around 23–25°C as the consensus range while assigning low probability to extremes above 25°C or below 22°C. Newer forecast updates over the next 48 hours, particularly from regional meteorological services, will provide the next key data points for refining these implied probabilities.