Recent forecasts for Mexico City indicate a highest temperature on August 6 most likely between 24–27°C, consistent with the market’s concentration of probability in that range. At the city’s high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters, daytime maxima are moderated by the ongoing rainy season, when afternoon convection and cloud cover frequently cap temperatures near the August climatological average of 22–24°C. Current model guidance shows no strong subtropical ridge or anomalous subsidence that would drive significant warming, while typical moisture influx supports scattered showers that limit afternoon peaks. Historical data indicate daily highs rarely exceed 26°C in early August without clear synoptic forcing, supporting the observed trader consensus around 25–27°C. Updated NHC and local meteorological agency guidance over the next 24 hours will provide the final observational inputs for market resolution.