Recent high-resolution forecasts from Brazil's INMET and international models show atmospheric stability over São Paulo with daytime maxima reaching exactly 22°C on May 17, driven by typical autumn subsidence and minimal moisture advection. This consensus underpins the 98.5% market-implied probability for 22°C, consistent with climatological averages for mid-May when highs rarely deviate beyond 21–23°C absent major frontal systems. Traders price in low odds for 23°C or higher because current model runs lack the warm-air influx or clear-sky radiative heating needed for further warming. A shift could occur only if updated runs reveal stronger northerly flow or reduced cloud cover boosting surface temperatures beyond the current 22°C threshold before evening cooling sets in.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 17?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 17?
22°C 99.1%
23°C or higher <1%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
$57,953 Vol.
$57,953 Vol.
May 17, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
99%
23°C or higher
1%
22°C 99.1%
23°C or higher <1%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
$57,953 Vol.
$57,953 Vol.
May 17, 2026
13°C or below
$2,459 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$710 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,223 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,471 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,226 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$3,599 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,217 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$7,983 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$14,140 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$12,198 Vol.
99%
23°C or higher
$11,760 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent high-resolution forecasts from Brazil's INMET and international models show atmospheric stability over São Paulo with daytime maxima reaching exactly 22°C on May 17, driven by typical autumn subsidence and minimal moisture advection. This consensus underpins the 98.5% market-implied probability for 22°C, consistent with climatological averages for mid-May when highs rarely deviate beyond 21–23°C absent major frontal systems. Traders price in low odds for 23°C or higher because current model runs lack the warm-air influx or clear-sky radiative heating needed for further warming. A shift could occur only if updated runs reveal stronger northerly flow or reduced cloud cover boosting surface temperatures beyond the current 22°C threshold before evening cooling sets in.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$57,953Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent high-resolution forecasts from Brazil's INMET and international models show atmospheric stability over São Paulo with daytime maxima reaching exactly 22°C on May 17, driven by typical autumn subsidence and minimal moisture advection. This consensus underpins the 98.5% market-implied probability for 22°C, consistent with climatological averages for mid-May when highs rarely deviate beyond 21–23°C absent major frontal systems. Traders price in low odds for 23°C or higher because current model runs lack the warm-air influx or clear-sky radiative heating needed for further warming. A shift could occur only if updated runs reveal stronger northerly flow or reduced cloud cover boosting surface temperatures beyond the current 22°C threshold before evening cooling sets in.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$57,953Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRRecent high-resolution forecasts from Brazil's INMET and international models show atmospheric stability over São Paulo with daytime maxima reaching exactly 22°C on May 17, driven by typical autumn subsidence and minimal moisture advection. This consensus underpins the 98.5% market-implied probability for 22°C, consistent with climatological averages for mid-May when highs rarely deviate beyond 21–23°C absent major frontal systems. Traders price in low odds for 23°C or higher because current model runs lack the warm-air influx or clear-sky radiative heating needed for further warming. A shift could occur only if updated runs reveal stronger northerly flow or reduced cloud cover boosting surface temperatures beyond the current 22°C threshold before evening cooling sets in.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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