Skip to main content
icon for How low will Lake Mead drop?
Iklim & Sains·Air

How low will Lake Mead drop?

icon for How low will Lake Mead drop?
Iklim & Sains·Air

How low will Lake Mead drop?

Below 1,028 ft 59%

Above 1,038 ft 23%

1,028–1,033 ft 22.6%

1,033–1,038 ft 11.7%

Polymarket
BARU

Below 1,028 ft 59%

Above 1,038 ft 23%

1,028–1,033 ft 22.6%

1,033–1,038 ft 11.7%

Polymarket
BARU

Above 1,038 ft

$1,669 Vol.

28%

1,033–1,038 ft

$313 Vol.

9%

1,028–1,033 ft

$262 Vol.

23%

Below 1,028 ft

$3,932 Vol.

52%

This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 1,038.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,038.00 feet but does not fall below 1,033.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,033.00 feet but does not fall below 1,028.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,028.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." For reference, 1,025 feet is the threshold below which the Lower Colorado River Basin enters its most severe declared shortage tier (Tier 3). Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.Lake Mead stands at a record-low elevation of 1,039.38 feet as of August 21, 2026—26.6% full and falling at roughly 0.3 feet per week—amid persistent Colorado River Basin drought conditions tracked by the Bureau of Reclamation. Low upstream inflows, elevated evaporation from above-normal temperatures, and cumulative storage losses of over 15 feet in the past year have positioned the reservoir near thresholds that trigger deeper shortage tiers. USBR 24-month modeling released in recent months projects further declines under most-probable and minimum-inflow scenarios, while the August 22 finalization of post-2026 operating guidelines imposes additional Lower Basin cuts and conservation requirements that have yet to reverse the downward trajectory. These verified hydrologic trends and official forecasts underpin trader consensus favoring substantial additional drops.

This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,028.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." For reference, 1,025 feet is the threshold below which the Lower Colorado River Basin enters its most severe declared shortage tier (Tier 3).

Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.

The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.
Volume
$5,671
Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 15, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Sumber Resolusi

https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,028.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." For reference, 1,025 feet is the threshold below which the Lower Colorado River Basin enters its most severe declared shortage tier (Tier 3). Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.
This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 1,038.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,038.00 feet but does not fall below 1,033.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,033.00 feet but does not fall below 1,028.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,028.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." For reference, 1,025 feet is the threshold below which the Lower Colorado River Basin enters its most severe declared shortage tier (Tier 3). Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.Lake Mead stands at a record-low elevation of 1,039.38 feet as of August 21, 2026—26.6% full and falling at roughly 0.3 feet per week—amid persistent Colorado River Basin drought conditions tracked by the Bureau of Reclamation. Low upstream inflows, elevated evaporation from above-normal temperatures, and cumulative storage losses of over 15 feet in the past year have positioned the reservoir near thresholds that trigger deeper shortage tiers. USBR 24-month modeling released in recent months projects further declines under most-probable and minimum-inflow scenarios, while the August 22 finalization of post-2026 operating guidelines imposes additional Lower Basin cuts and conservation requirements that have yet to reverse the downward trajectory. These verified hydrologic trends and official forecasts underpin trader consensus favoring substantial additional drops.

This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,028.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." For reference, 1,025 feet is the threshold below which the Lower Colorado River Basin enters its most severe declared shortage tier (Tier 3).

Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.

The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.
Volume
$5,671
Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 15, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Sumber Resolusi

https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,028.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." For reference, 1,025 feet is the threshold below which the Lower Colorado River Basin enters its most severe declared shortage tier (Tier 3). Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.

Terkait

icon for Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?

70%

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"How low will Lake Mead drop?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 4 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Below 1,028 ft" di 52%, diikuti oleh "Above 1,038 ft" di 28%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 52¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 52% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"How low will Lake Mead drop?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Aug 17, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "How low will Lake Mead drop?," jelajahi 4 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "How low will Lake Mead drop?" adalah "Below 1,028 ft" di 52%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 52% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Above 1,038 ft" di 28%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "How low will Lake Mead drop?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.