Ongoing military tensions between Israel and Iran, intensified by the 2026 conflict that began with coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites in February, continue to shape trader assessments of any near-term permanent peace deal. A fragile ceasefire agreed in April, mediated by Pakistan and extended in Lebanon through mid-June, has not resolved core disputes over Iran's uranium enrichment, ballistic missile program, and support for regional proxies. Recent U.S. proposals demand verifiable limits on these capabilities without sunset clauses, while Israeli officials have stressed that enriched material must be removed and facilities dismantled before hostilities fully end. Ongoing U.S. naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz and reported preparations for renewed strikes add pressure, though diplomatic channels remain open amid economic strain on Iran. These factors keep the probability of a comprehensive bilateral agreement low until nuclear and security guarantees are addressed.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$936,906 Vol.
May 31, 2026
May 31
3%
June 30
13%
$936,906 Vol.
May 31
$281,744 Vol.
3%
June 30
$340,547 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing military tensions between Israel and Iran, intensified by the 2026 conflict that began with coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites in February, continue to shape trader assessments of any near-term permanent peace deal. A fragile ceasefire agreed in April, mediated by Pakistan and extended in Lebanon through mid-June, has not resolved core disputes over Iran's uranium enrichment, ballistic missile program, and support for regional proxies. Recent U.S. proposals demand verifiable limits on these capabilities without sunset clauses, while Israeli officials have stressed that enriched material must be removed and facilities dismantled before hostilities fully end. Ongoing U.S. naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz and reported preparations for renewed strikes add pressure, though diplomatic channels remain open amid economic strain on Iran. These factors keep the probability of a comprehensive bilateral agreement low until nuclear and security guarantees are addressed.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
Volume
$936,906Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing military tensions between Israel and Iran, intensified by the 2026 conflict that began with coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites in February, continue to shape trader assessments of any near-term permanent peace deal. A fragile ceasefire agreed in April, mediated by Pakistan and extended in Lebanon through mid-June, has not resolved core disputes over Iran's uranium enrichment, ballistic missile program, and support for regional proxies. Recent U.S. proposals demand verifiable limits on these capabilities without sunset clauses, while Israeli officials have stressed that enriched material must be removed and facilities dismantled before hostilities fully end. Ongoing U.S. naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz and reported preparations for renewed strikes add pressure, though diplomatic channels remain open amid economic strain on Iran. These factors keep the probability of a comprehensive bilateral agreement low until nuclear and security guarantees are addressed.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$936,906Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military tensions between Israel and Iran, intensified by the 2026 conflict that began with coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites in February, continue to shape trader assessments of any near-term permanent peace deal. A fragile ceasefire agreed in April, mediated by Pakistan and extended in Lebanon through mid-June, has not resolved core disputes over Iran's uranium enrichment, ballistic missile program, and support for regional proxies. Recent U.S. proposals demand verifiable limits on these capabilities without sunset clauses, while Israeli officials have stressed that enriched material must be removed and facilities dismantled before hostilities fully end. Ongoing U.S. naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz and reported preparations for renewed strikes add pressure, though diplomatic channels remain open amid economic strain on Iran. These factors keep the probability of a comprehensive bilateral agreement low until nuclear and security guarantees are addressed.
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