Recent June 2026 BLS data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2 percent alongside modest nonfarm payroll gains of 57,000, keeping the labor market near the Federal Reserve's 4.2 percent estimate of the natural rate. With July outcomes priced evenly at 50 percent across bins from ≤3.9 percent to ≥4.7 percent, trader consensus reflects balanced risks around continued stability versus modest softening. Key swing factors include the pace of job creation, labor force participation shifts, and any revisions to prior months, all of which will shape the August release. Market-implied odds capture aggregated real-capital bets on whether incoming indicators push the rate toward or away from the prevailing 4.2–4.3 percent range observed since mid-2025.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiJuly Unemployment Rate
July Unemployment Rate
4.3% 34%
4.2% 32%
4.1% 29%
≤3.9% 27%
BARU
BARU
Aug 7, 2026
≤3.9%
27%
4.0%
18%
4.1%
29%
4.2%
32%
4.3%
34%
4.4%
27%
4.5%
19%
4.6%
24%
≥4.7%
22%
4.3% 34%
4.2% 32%
4.1% 29%
≤3.9% 27%
BARU
BARU
Aug 7, 2026
≤3.9%
$0 Vol.
27%
4.0%
$0 Vol.
18%
4.1%
$25 Vol.
29%
4.2%
$0 Vol.
32%
4.3%
$0 Vol.
34%
4.4%
$0 Vol.
27%
4.5%
$0 Vol.
19%
4.6%
$0 Vol.
24%
≥4.7%
$0 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent June 2026 BLS data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2 percent alongside modest nonfarm payroll gains of 57,000, keeping the labor market near the Federal Reserve's 4.2 percent estimate of the natural rate. With July outcomes priced evenly at 50 percent across bins from ≤3.9 percent to ≥4.7 percent, trader consensus reflects balanced risks around continued stability versus modest softening. Key swing factors include the pace of job creation, labor force participation shifts, and any revisions to prior months, all of which will shape the August release. Market-implied odds capture aggregated real-capital bets on whether incoming indicators push the rate toward or away from the prevailing 4.2–4.3 percent range observed since mid-2025.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 2, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$25Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 7, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 2, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent June 2026 BLS data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2 percent alongside modest nonfarm payroll gains of 57,000, keeping the labor market near the Federal Reserve's 4.2 percent estimate of the natural rate. With July outcomes priced evenly at 50 percent across bins from ≤3.9 percent to ≥4.7 percent, trader consensus reflects balanced risks around continued stability versus modest softening. Key swing factors include the pace of job creation, labor force participation shifts, and any revisions to prior months, all of which will shape the August release. Market-implied odds capture aggregated real-capital bets on whether incoming indicators push the rate toward or away from the prevailing 4.2–4.3 percent range observed since mid-2025.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$25Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 7, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 2, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent June 2026 BLS data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2 percent alongside modest nonfarm payroll gains of 57,000, keeping the labor market near the Federal Reserve's 4.2 percent estimate of the natural rate. With July outcomes priced evenly at 50 percent across bins from ≤3.9 percent to ≥4.7 percent, trader consensus reflects balanced risks around continued stability versus modest softening. Key swing factors include the pace of job creation, labor force participation shifts, and any revisions to prior months, all of which will shape the August release. Market-implied odds capture aggregated real-capital bets on whether incoming indicators push the rate toward or away from the prevailing 4.2–4.3 percent range observed since mid-2025.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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