Recent forecast model runs show notable spread in projected overnight minimums for Beijing on August 26, with ensembles centering near 20–22 °C but diverging on the strength of incoming moisture and cloud cover that will modulate radiative cooling. Thunderstorm activity and light rain expected that night can suppress the diurnal temperature range by limiting nighttime heat loss, while any clearer breaks would allow lows to dip closer to the 19 °C mark favored by some traders. Historical late-August climatology places typical Beijing overnight lows near 21 °C, providing a baseline that current guidance slightly undercuts due to the transient weather pattern. Traders are therefore weighting near-term updates from global and regional models ahead of the final observation window, as small shifts in the timing or intensity of precipitation could easily move the realized minimum across the tightly bunched 19–21 °C resolution thresholds.