Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory and global models indicate a peak temperature of 33–34°C on August 26, driven by the post-fu transition with increasing cloud cover, scattered afternoon thunderstorms, and higher humidity moderating daytime heating after the end of the "dog days." These conditions favor convective activity that caps maximums in the Sichuan Basin, consistent with historical late-August patterns of 32–35°C. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 34–36°C because ensemble variability in storm timing and intensity creates genuine uncertainty in the precise daily high, with new NWP runs and local observations expected to sharpen resolution criteria before the 26th.