**Forecast uncertainty around typical mid-September overnight minima is driving the balanced Polymarket odds, with no single outcome dominating.** Historical averages place Helsinki's September 16 low near 9–10°C, yet recent model runs show a mild southerly flow supporting overnight temperatures in the 10–14°C range under increasing cloud cover and light rain chances, limiting radiative cooling. This setup explains the clustered probabilities around 12°C (30%) and the 32% implied odds on both sub-6°C extremes and 16°C-plus readings, as small shifts in wind direction, humidity, or clearing skies could alter the minimum by several degrees. Traders are weighting the latest ensemble guidance from agencies like the Finnish Meteorological Institute alongside historical variability, where clear, calm nights enable sharper drops while persistent cloud and advection maintain milder conditions. Updated model runs and official observations tomorrow morning will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Helsinki on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Helsinki on September 16?
6°C or below 65%
16°C or higher 65%
10°C 40%
14°C 39%
BARU
BARU
Sep 16, 2026
6°C or below
65%
7°C
38%
8°C
38%
9°C
38%
10°C
40%
11°C
29%
12°C
28%
13°C
21%
14°C
39%
15°C
39%
16°C or higher
65%
6°C or below 65%
16°C or higher 65%
10°C 40%
14°C 39%
BARU
BARU
Sep 16, 2026
6°C or below
$0 Vol.
65%
7°C
$0 Vol.
38%
8°C
$0 Vol.
38%
9°C
$0 Vol.
38%
10°C
$0 Vol.
40%
11°C
$4 Vol.
29%
12°C
$0 Vol.
28%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
65%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty around typical mid-September overnight minima is driving the balanced Polymarket odds, with no single outcome dominating.** Historical averages place Helsinki's September 16 low near 9–10°C, yet recent model runs show a mild southerly flow supporting overnight temperatures in the 10–14°C range under increasing cloud cover and light rain chances, limiting radiative cooling. This setup explains the clustered probabilities around 12°C (30%) and the 32% implied odds on both sub-6°C extremes and 16°C-plus readings, as small shifts in wind direction, humidity, or clearing skies could alter the minimum by several degrees. Traders are weighting the latest ensemble guidance from agencies like the Finnish Meteorological Institute alongside historical variability, where clear, calm nights enable sharper drops while persistent cloud and advection maintain milder conditions. Updated model runs and official observations tomorrow morning will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$4Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty around typical mid-September overnight minima is driving the balanced Polymarket odds, with no single outcome dominating.** Historical averages place Helsinki's September 16 low near 9–10°C, yet recent model runs show a mild southerly flow supporting overnight temperatures in the 10–14°C range under increasing cloud cover and light rain chances, limiting radiative cooling. This setup explains the clustered probabilities around 12°C (30%) and the 32% implied odds on both sub-6°C extremes and 16°C-plus readings, as small shifts in wind direction, humidity, or clearing skies could alter the minimum by several degrees. Traders are weighting the latest ensemble guidance from agencies like the Finnish Meteorological Institute alongside historical variability, where clear, calm nights enable sharper drops while persistent cloud and advection maintain milder conditions. Updated model runs and official observations tomorrow morning will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast uncertainty around typical mid-September overnight minima is driving the balanced Polymarket odds, with no single outcome dominating.** Historical averages place Helsinki's September 16 low near 9–10°C, yet recent model runs show a mild southerly flow supporting overnight temperatures in the 10–14°C range under increasing cloud cover and light rain chances, limiting radiative cooling. This setup explains the clustered probabilities around 12°C (30%) and the 32% implied odds on both sub-6°C extremes and 16°C-plus readings, as small shifts in wind direction, humidity, or clearing skies could alter the minimum by several degrees. Traders are weighting the latest ensemble guidance from agencies like the Finnish Meteorological Institute alongside historical variability, where clear, calm nights enable sharper drops while persistent cloud and advection maintain milder conditions. Updated model runs and official observations tomorrow morning will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan