Hong Kong's typical June climatology, reinforced by the Hong Kong Observatory's above-normal temperature outlook for June–August 2026, has driven near-certain trader consensus on a 26°C low for June 12. Daily model guidance and historical baselines place overnight minima at 26–27°C under subtropical high pressure and moderate humidity, with no cold-air outbreaks or typhoon influences observed in the preceding period. This alignment of seasonal forecasts, real-time observations, and lack of anomalous cloud cover or marine-layer effects has produced the 99.5% implied probability. Resolution could shift only if post-event verification reveals localized rain-cooled pockets or an unexpected boundary-layer change that drops readings below the threshold, though current data indicate negligible likelihood.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?
26°C 99.5%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$42,932 Vol.
$42,932 Vol.
Jun 12, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
100%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 99.5%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$42,932 Vol.
$42,932 Vol.
Jun 12, 2026
21°C or below
$848 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$944 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,444 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$2,932 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$6,758 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$21,873 Vol.
100%
27°C
$4,426 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$908 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$710 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$420 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$668 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's typical June climatology, reinforced by the Hong Kong Observatory's above-normal temperature outlook for June–August 2026, has driven near-certain trader consensus on a 26°C low for June 12. Daily model guidance and historical baselines place overnight minima at 26–27°C under subtropical high pressure and moderate humidity, with no cold-air outbreaks or typhoon influences observed in the preceding period. This alignment of seasonal forecasts, real-time observations, and lack of anomalous cloud cover or marine-layer effects has produced the 99.5% implied probability. Resolution could shift only if post-event verification reveals localized rain-cooled pockets or an unexpected boundary-layer change that drops readings below the threshold, though current data indicate negligible likelihood.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$42,932Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's typical June climatology, reinforced by the Hong Kong Observatory's above-normal temperature outlook for June–August 2026, has driven near-certain trader consensus on a 26°C low for June 12. Daily model guidance and historical baselines place overnight minima at 26–27°C under subtropical high pressure and moderate humidity, with no cold-air outbreaks or typhoon influences observed in the preceding period. This alignment of seasonal forecasts, real-time observations, and lack of anomalous cloud cover or marine-layer effects has produced the 99.5% implied probability. Resolution could shift only if post-event verification reveals localized rain-cooled pockets or an unexpected boundary-layer change that drops readings below the threshold, though current data indicate negligible likelihood.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$42,932Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong's typical June climatology, reinforced by the Hong Kong Observatory's above-normal temperature outlook for June–August 2026, has driven near-certain trader consensus on a 26°C low for June 12. Daily model guidance and historical baselines place overnight minima at 26–27°C under subtropical high pressure and moderate humidity, with no cold-air outbreaks or typhoon influences observed in the preceding period. This alignment of seasonal forecasts, real-time observations, and lack of anomalous cloud cover or marine-layer effects has produced the 99.5% implied probability. Resolution could shift only if post-event verification reveals localized rain-cooled pockets or an unexpected boundary-layer change that drops readings below the threshold, though current data indicate negligible likelihood.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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