**Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models point to an overnight low near 80–82°F for Houston on August 25, 2026, consistent with the market’s closely bunched probabilities (26–30%) across the 76–83°F range.** A strong upper-level ridge centered over the western U.S. is maintaining hot, humid conditions with southwesterly winds, elevated dewpoints, and limited radiational cooling overnight. These factors suppress the typical drop toward the August climatological average low of ~76°F. Slight variations in forecast lows across sources (78–82°F) arise from differences in expected cloud cover, wind mixing, and boundary-layer moisture, creating the tight clustering of trader-implied odds. A modest increase in mid-level moisture or light winds could allow marginally more cooling into the upper 70s, while continued clear skies and higher dewpoints would hold the minimum closer to 82°F. Heat advisories remain in effect through Tuesday evening, underscoring the persistent thermal setup. Traders are weighing these model nuances and any last-minute forecast adjustments against historical precedent of occasional cooler August nights when steering patterns shift. Resolution will hinge on official observations at primary Houston stations once the calendar day ends.