Stable high-pressure systems and clear skies over the eastern Mediterranean are driving mild overnight radiative cooling in Istanbul, with current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicating a minimum temperature near 19–21°C on September 11. Northeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h limit extreme cooling while preventing significant cloud cover or moisture advection that could raise or lower readings. Historical September minima average around 17°C, yet persistent above-average warmth this week keeps the distribution centered in the mid-20s daytime range. Model spread creates genuine uncertainty around exact thresholds, producing near-even market-implied odds between sub-16°C and 26°C+ outcomes despite the consensus mid-range projection. Updated model runs and local station observations in the next 48 hours will refine the precise minimum.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 11?
16°C or below 98%
26°C or higher 98%
17°C 40%
18°C 40%
BARU
BARU
Sep 11, 2026
16°C or below
98%
17°C
40%
18°C
40%
19°C
21%
20°C
21%
21°C
21%
22°C
31%
23°C
40%
24°C
40%
25°C
40%
26°C or higher
98%
16°C or below 98%
26°C or higher 98%
17°C 40%
18°C 40%
BARU
BARU
Sep 11, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
98%
17°C
$0 Vol.
40%
18°C
$0 Vol.
40%
19°C
$0 Vol.
21%
20°C
$0 Vol.
21%
21°C
$0 Vol.
21%
22°C
$0 Vol.
31%
23°C
$0 Vol.
40%
24°C
$0 Vol.
40%
25°C
$0 Vol.
40%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure systems and clear skies over the eastern Mediterranean are driving mild overnight radiative cooling in Istanbul, with current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicating a minimum temperature near 19–21°C on September 11. Northeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h limit extreme cooling while preventing significant cloud cover or moisture advection that could raise or lower readings. Historical September minima average around 17°C, yet persistent above-average warmth this week keeps the distribution centered in the mid-20s daytime range. Model spread creates genuine uncertainty around exact thresholds, producing near-even market-implied odds between sub-16°C and 26°C+ outcomes despite the consensus mid-range projection. Updated model runs and local station observations in the next 48 hours will refine the precise minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure systems and clear skies over the eastern Mediterranean are driving mild overnight radiative cooling in Istanbul, with current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicating a minimum temperature near 19–21°C on September 11. Northeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h limit extreme cooling while preventing significant cloud cover or moisture advection that could raise or lower readings. Historical September minima average around 17°C, yet persistent above-average warmth this week keeps the distribution centered in the mid-20s daytime range. Model spread creates genuine uncertainty around exact thresholds, producing near-even market-implied odds between sub-16°C and 26°C+ outcomes despite the consensus mid-range projection. Updated model runs and local station observations in the next 48 hours will refine the precise minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Stable high-pressure systems and clear skies over the eastern Mediterranean are driving mild overnight radiative cooling in Istanbul, with current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicating a minimum temperature near 19–21°C on September 11. Northeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h limit extreme cooling while preventing significant cloud cover or moisture advection that could raise or lower readings. Historical September minima average around 17°C, yet persistent above-average warmth this week keeps the distribution centered in the mid-20s daytime range. Model spread creates genuine uncertainty around exact thresholds, producing near-even market-implied odds between sub-16°C and 26°C+ outcomes despite the consensus mid-range projection. Updated model runs and local station observations in the next 48 hours will refine the precise minimum.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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