Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models for New York City's LaGuardia Airport low temperature on May 14, with the 56-57°F outcome leading at 31% implied probability amid a tight cluster around mid-50s°F. Recent 12Z model runs highlight a weak cold front introducing northwest winds and partly cloudy skies overnight, enabling potential radiational cooling and dew point depressions greater than 10°F in drier boundary layer air, favoring lower outcomes like 54-55°F (26%) or 52-53°F (22%); however, persistent low-level clouds or residual mixing could preserve warmer lows near 56-57°F. Climatological May 14 normal is 54°F, but below-average spring patterns add downside risk. Watch 00Z model updates and NWS evening discussion for refined cloud cover timing and wind shear above 500 mb, as 48-hour predictability improves rapidly.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in NYC on May 14?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 14?
56-57°F 35%
54-55°F 32%
52-53°F 28%
58-59°F 14.5%
BARU
BARU
May 14, 2026
45°F or below
1%
46-47°F
1%
48-49°F
1%
50-51°F
3%
52-53°F
28%
54-55°F
39%
56-57°F
35%
58-59°F
14%
60-61°F
2%
62-63°F
<1%
64°F or higher
1%
56-57°F 35%
54-55°F 32%
52-53°F 28%
58-59°F 14.5%
BARU
BARU
May 14, 2026
45°F or below
$127 Vol.
1%
46-47°F
$304 Vol.
1%
48-49°F
$197 Vol.
1%
50-51°F
$362 Vol.
3%
52-53°F
$187 Vol.
28%
54-55°F
$220 Vol.
39%
56-57°F
$156 Vol.
35%
58-59°F
$132 Vol.
14%
60-61°F
$134 Vol.
2%
62-63°F
$302 Vol.
<1%
64°F or higher
$810 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models for New York City's LaGuardia Airport low temperature on May 14, with the 56-57°F outcome leading at 31% implied probability amid a tight cluster around mid-50s°F. Recent 12Z model runs highlight a weak cold front introducing northwest winds and partly cloudy skies overnight, enabling potential radiational cooling and dew point depressions greater than 10°F in drier boundary layer air, favoring lower outcomes like 54-55°F (26%) or 52-53°F (22%); however, persistent low-level clouds or residual mixing could preserve warmer lows near 56-57°F. Climatological May 14 normal is 54°F, but below-average spring patterns add downside risk. Watch 00Z model updates and NWS evening discussion for refined cloud cover timing and wind shear above 500 mb, as 48-hour predictability improves rapidly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$2,928Tanggal Berakhir
May 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models for New York City's LaGuardia Airport low temperature on May 14, with the 56-57°F outcome leading at 31% implied probability amid a tight cluster around mid-50s°F. Recent 12Z model runs highlight a weak cold front introducing northwest winds and partly cloudy skies overnight, enabling potential radiational cooling and dew point depressions greater than 10°F in drier boundary layer air, favoring lower outcomes like 54-55°F (26%) or 52-53°F (22%); however, persistent low-level clouds or residual mixing could preserve warmer lows near 56-57°F. Climatological May 14 normal is 54°F, but below-average spring patterns add downside risk. Watch 00Z model updates and NWS evening discussion for refined cloud cover timing and wind shear above 500 mb, as 48-hour predictability improves rapidly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,928Tanggal Berakhir
May 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models for New York City's LaGuardia Airport low temperature on May 14, with the 56-57°F outcome leading at 31% implied probability amid a tight cluster around mid-50s°F. Recent 12Z model runs highlight a weak cold front introducing northwest winds and partly cloudy skies overnight, enabling potential radiational cooling and dew point depressions greater than 10°F in drier boundary layer air, favoring lower outcomes like 54-55°F (26%) or 52-53°F (22%); however, persistent low-level clouds or residual mixing could preserve warmer lows near 56-57°F. Climatological May 14 normal is 54°F, but below-average spring patterns add downside risk. Watch 00Z model updates and NWS evening discussion for refined cloud cover timing and wind shear above 500 mb, as 48-hour predictability improves rapidly.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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