**Traders have converged on 21°C as the near-certain outcome for Shanghai’s lowest temperature on June 11, 2026, reflecting short-range forecast consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and international models.** Typical early-June conditions in the Yangtze Delta—high humidity, frequent cloud cover, and light winds under the East Asian monsoon—limit nighttime radiative cooling and keep overnight lows near 20–22°C. Recent observations show daytime highs reaching 32–34°C with minimal diurnal range, consistent with climatological averages of 21–23°C for mid-June minima. The market-implied 100% probability on 21°C indicates skin-in-the-game alignment around the official forecast threshold, where even small revisions could shift resolution. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clear skies or a model update pushing the minimum outside the 21°C bracket by measurement time at the primary Shanghai station.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Shanghai on June 11?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on June 11?
21°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$30,870 Vol.
$30,870 Vol.
Jun 11, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$30,870 Vol.
$30,870 Vol.
Jun 11, 2026
14°C or below
$582 Vol.
No
15°C
$938 Vol.
No
16°C
$628 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,207 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,031 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,452 Vol.
No
20°C
$5,636 Vol.
No
21°C
$8,961 Vol.
Yes
22°C
$1,588 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,687 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$5,162 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Traders have converged on 21°C as the near-certain outcome for Shanghai’s lowest temperature on June 11, 2026, reflecting short-range forecast consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and international models.** Typical early-June conditions in the Yangtze Delta—high humidity, frequent cloud cover, and light winds under the East Asian monsoon—limit nighttime radiative cooling and keep overnight lows near 20–22°C. Recent observations show daytime highs reaching 32–34°C with minimal diurnal range, consistent with climatological averages of 21–23°C for mid-June minima. The market-implied 100% probability on 21°C indicates skin-in-the-game alignment around the official forecast threshold, where even small revisions could shift resolution. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clear skies or a model update pushing the minimum outside the 21°C bracket by measurement time at the primary Shanghai station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 9, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$30,870Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 9, 2026, 12:32 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Traders have converged on 21°C as the near-certain outcome for Shanghai’s lowest temperature on June 11, 2026, reflecting short-range forecast consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and international models.** Typical early-June conditions in the Yangtze Delta—high humidity, frequent cloud cover, and light winds under the East Asian monsoon—limit nighttime radiative cooling and keep overnight lows near 20–22°C. Recent observations show daytime highs reaching 32–34°C with minimal diurnal range, consistent with climatological averages of 21–23°C for mid-June minima. The market-implied 100% probability on 21°C indicates skin-in-the-game alignment around the official forecast threshold, where even small revisions could shift resolution. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clear skies or a model update pushing the minimum outside the 21°C bracket by measurement time at the primary Shanghai station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,870Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 9, 2026, 12:32 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
**Traders have converged on 21°C as the near-certain outcome for Shanghai’s lowest temperature on June 11, 2026, reflecting short-range forecast consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and international models.** Typical early-June conditions in the Yangtze Delta—high humidity, frequent cloud cover, and light winds under the East Asian monsoon—limit nighttime radiative cooling and keep overnight lows near 20–22°C. Recent observations show daytime highs reaching 32–34°C with minimal diurnal range, consistent with climatological averages of 21–23°C for mid-June minima. The market-implied 100% probability on 21°C indicates skin-in-the-game alignment around the official forecast threshold, where even small revisions could shift resolution. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clear skies or a model update pushing the minimum outside the 21°C bracket by measurement time at the primary Shanghai station.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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