Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race as the Republican incumbent seeking reelection, with recent polls showing consistent double-digit leads over Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party. Traders price his victory at 93.5% due to sustained voter support in first-round and runoff scenarios, party consolidation on the right, and the withdrawal of potential rivals such as Kim Kataguiri, which narrows the field and reduces vote fragmentation. Primary drivers include his established state-level record and favorable polling trends across multiple firms through early August. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes remain limited but include late shifts in national alignments, significant campaign events before the October first round, or unexpected changes in candidate registration that reopen competition.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 4.0%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$278,966 Vol.
$278,966 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
94%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 4.0%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$278,966 Vol.
$278,966 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$122,984 Vol.
94%
Fernando Haddad
$46,833 Vol.
4%
Erika Hilton
$22,704 Vol.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$75,777 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race as the Republican incumbent seeking reelection, with recent polls showing consistent double-digit leads over Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party. Traders price his victory at 93.5% due to sustained voter support in first-round and runoff scenarios, party consolidation on the right, and the withdrawal of potential rivals such as Kim Kataguiri, which narrows the field and reduces vote fragmentation. Primary drivers include his established state-level record and favorable polling trends across multiple firms through early August. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes remain limited but include late shifts in national alignments, significant campaign events before the October first round, or unexpected changes in candidate registration that reopen competition.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$278,966Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race as the Republican incumbent seeking reelection, with recent polls showing consistent double-digit leads over Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party. Traders price his victory at 93.5% due to sustained voter support in first-round and runoff scenarios, party consolidation on the right, and the withdrawal of potential rivals such as Kim Kataguiri, which narrows the field and reduces vote fragmentation. Primary drivers include his established state-level record and favorable polling trends across multiple firms through early August. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes remain limited but include late shifts in national alignments, significant campaign events before the October first round, or unexpected changes in candidate registration that reopen competition.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$278,966Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race as the Republican incumbent seeking reelection, with recent polls showing consistent double-digit leads over Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party. Traders price his victory at 93.5% due to sustained voter support in first-round and runoff scenarios, party consolidation on the right, and the withdrawal of potential rivals such as Kim Kataguiri, which narrows the field and reduces vote fragmentation. Primary drivers include his established state-level record and favorable polling trends across multiple firms through early August. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes remain limited but include late shifts in national alignments, significant campaign events before the October first round, or unexpected changes in candidate registration that reopen competition.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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