President Donald Trump’s public commitment on October 8 to avoid new attacks on Iran before the November 3 midterms has anchored trader expectations that the current de-escalation will hold. Ongoing indirect talks mediated by Qatar and others, combined with Iranian proposals for a 60-day ceasefire extension and Strait of Hormuz reopening, have reinforced this view despite earlier rejections of shorter truce offers. High oil prices and domestic political risks for Republicans further discourage escalation in the final weeks. While flare-ups remain possible, the absence of major incidents since late September and the administration’s focus on diplomacy through election day support the 73.5% implied probability that a ceasefire persists through the midterms.