This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.Negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran remain deadlocked following President Trump's May 11 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," which demanded war reparations, full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the U.S. naval blockade, guarantees against future attacks, and lifting of sanctions on oil sales. This stems from a fragile ceasefire amid the 2025–2026 U.S.-Iran conflict, where U.S. proposals emphasize major rollbacks in Iran's nuclear program and unrestricted maritime transit, while Iranian officials review options through mediators like Pakistan. Traders weigh escalation risks, including potential Israeli strikes or renewed U.S. actions if no agreement by May 31, against diplomatic signals from Trump's upcoming China visit seeking Beijing's leverage over Tehran.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets. - The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran remain deadlocked following President Trump's May 11 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," which demanded war reparations, full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the U.S. naval blockade, guarantees against future attacks, and lifting of sanctions on oil sales. This stems from a fragile ceasefire amid the 2025–2026 U.S.-Iran conflict, where U.S. proposals emphasize major rollbacks in Iran's nuclear program and unrestricted maritime transit, while Iranian officials review options through mediators like Pakistan. Traders weigh escalation risks, including potential Israeli strikes or renewed U.S. actions if no agreement by May 31, against diplomatic signals from Trump's upcoming China visit seeking Beijing's leverage over Tehran.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
May 11 2026
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its
Unfreeze Iranian Assets dips to 14%3%
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its lowest level
May 6 2026
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally in sanction‑relief odds
May 6 2026
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 12%8%
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued enrichment, further dampening “yes” odds (temporary spike from speculation)
May 5 2026
Trump’s “life‑support” comment on the cease‑fire after Iran’s latest proposal, which demanded unfreezing of assets, signals U.S.
Unfreeze Iranian Assets jumps to 25%11%
reluctance to honor that part of the deal
May 4 2026
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%3%
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if enrichment stopped, reinforcing market belief that continuation was off the table
Apr 29 2026
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 19%18%
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal agreement that could include oil‑sanction relief
Apr 21 2026
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s
Unfreeze Iranian Assets rises to 21%1%
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s asset‑unfreeze provisions
Apr 21 2026
Trump posts on Truth Social extending the US‑Iran cease‑fire;
Oil Sanction Relief rises to 37%3%
traders had placed a $430 million short on Brent minutes before the announcement, indicating expectations of falling oil
Apr 19 2026
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly stabilises the market at low levels
Apr 17 2026
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 4%4%
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned tolls and prompting a sharp drop in “Yes” odds
Apr 17 2026
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait of Hormuz “completely open”;
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Trump immediately tweets praise, suggesting a de‑escalation that could lead to sanction easing
Apr 14 2026
Four Iran‑linked vessels are observed transiting the Strait despite the U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 8%1%
blockade, showing limited enforcement and keeping fee‑related expectations alive
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces a U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 9%22%
naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz on Truth Social, warning Tehran against imposing tolls
Apr 10 2026
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 14%11%
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening concerns that sanctions relief will not be renewed
Apr 8 2026
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 31%16%
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could trigger a “Yes” outcome
Mar 20 2026
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 25%25%
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140 million barrels of stranded oil
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.Negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran remain deadlocked following President Trump's May 11 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," which demanded war reparations, full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the U.S. naval blockade, guarantees against future attacks, and lifting of sanctions on oil sales. This stems from a fragile ceasefire amid the 2025–2026 U.S.-Iran conflict, where U.S. proposals emphasize major rollbacks in Iran's nuclear program and unrestricted maritime transit, while Iranian officials review options through mediators like Pakistan. Traders weigh escalation risks, including potential Israeli strikes or renewed U.S. actions if no agreement by May 31, against diplomatic signals from Trump's upcoming China visit seeking Beijing's leverage over Tehran.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets. - The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran remain deadlocked following President Trump's May 11 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," which demanded war reparations, full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the U.S. naval blockade, guarantees against future attacks, and lifting of sanctions on oil sales. This stems from a fragile ceasefire amid the 2025–2026 U.S.-Iran conflict, where U.S. proposals emphasize major rollbacks in Iran's nuclear program and unrestricted maritime transit, while Iranian officials review options through mediators like Pakistan. Traders weigh escalation risks, including potential Israeli strikes or renewed U.S. actions if no agreement by May 31, against diplomatic signals from Trump's upcoming China visit seeking Beijing's leverage over Tehran.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
May 11 2026
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its
Unfreeze Iranian Assets dips to 14%3%
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its lowest level
May 6 2026
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally in sanction‑relief odds
May 6 2026
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 12%8%
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued enrichment, further dampening “yes” odds (temporary spike from speculation)
May 5 2026
Trump’s “life‑support” comment on the cease‑fire after Iran’s latest proposal, which demanded unfreezing of assets, signals U.S.
Unfreeze Iranian Assets jumps to 25%11%
reluctance to honor that part of the deal
May 4 2026
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%3%
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if enrichment stopped, reinforcing market belief that continuation was off the table
Apr 29 2026
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 19%18%
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal agreement that could include oil‑sanction relief
Apr 21 2026
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s
Unfreeze Iranian Assets rises to 21%1%
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s asset‑unfreeze provisions
Apr 21 2026
Trump posts on Truth Social extending the US‑Iran cease‑fire;
Oil Sanction Relief rises to 37%3%
traders had placed a $430 million short on Brent minutes before the announcement, indicating expectations of falling oil
Apr 19 2026
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly stabilises the market at low levels
Apr 17 2026
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 4%4%
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned tolls and prompting a sharp drop in “Yes” odds
Apr 17 2026
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait of Hormuz “completely open”;
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Trump immediately tweets praise, suggesting a de‑escalation that could lead to sanction easing
Apr 14 2026
Four Iran‑linked vessels are observed transiting the Strait despite the U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 8%1%
blockade, showing limited enforcement and keeping fee‑related expectations alive
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces a U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 9%22%
naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz on Truth Social, warning Tehran against imposing tolls
Apr 10 2026
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 14%11%
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening concerns that sanctions relief will not be renewed
Apr 8 2026
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 31%16%
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could trigger a “Yes” outcome
Mar 20 2026
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 25%25%
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140 million barrels of stranded oil
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"What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 4 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Oil Sanction Relief" di 14%, diikuti oleh "Unfreeze Iranian Assets" di 14%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 14¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 14% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.
Per hari ini, "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" telah menghasilkan $960K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 29, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.
Untuk trading di "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?," jelajahi 4 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.
Unggulan saat ini untuk "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" adalah "Oil Sanction Relief" di 14%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 14% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Unfreeze Iranian Assets" di 14%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.
Aturan resolusi untuk "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.
Ya. Kamu tidak perlu trading untuk tetap terinformasi. Halaman ini berfungsi sebagai pelacak langsung untuk "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?." Probabilitas hasil diperbarui secara real-time saat trade baru masuk. Kamu bisa menandai halaman ini dan memeriksa bagian komentar untuk melihat apa yang dikatakan trader lain. Kamu juga bisa menggunakan filter rentang waktu pada grafik untuk melihat bagaimana peluang bergeser seiring waktu. Ini jendela real-time gratis tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.
Peluang Polymarket ditetapkan oleh trader nyata yang menaruh uang nyata di balik keyakinan mereka, yang cenderung menghasilkan prediksi yang akurat. Dengan $960K diperdagangkan pada "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?," harga-harga ini mengumpulkan pengetahuan dan keyakinan kolektif dari ribuan peserta — sering kali mengalahkan jajak pendapat, prakiraan ahli, dan survei tradisional. Pasar prediksi seperti Polymarket memiliki rekam jejak akurasi yang kuat, terutama saat event mendekati tanggal resolusinya. Misalnya, Polymarket memiliki skor akurasi satu bulan sebesar 94%. Untuk statistik terbaru tentang akurasi prediksi Polymarket, kunjungi halaman akurasi di Polymarket.
Untuk melakukan trade pertamamu di "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?," daftar akun Polymarket gratis dan isi dengan crypto, kartu kredit atau debit, atau transfer bank. Setelah akunmu terisi, kembali ke halaman ini, pilih hasil yang ingin kamu trading, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu baru di pasar prediksi, klik link "Cara kerjanya" di bagian atas halaman Polymarket mana pun untuk panduan langkah demi langkah tentang cara trading.
Di Polymarket, harga setiap hasil mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Harga 14¢ untuk "Oil Sanction Relief" di pasar "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" berarti trader secara kolektif percaya ada sekitar peluang 14% bahwa "Oil Sanction Relief" akan menjadi hasil yang benar. Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" di 14¢ dan hasilnya benar, kamu menerima $1,00 per saham — keuntungan 86¢ per saham. Jika salah, saham tersebut bernilai $0.
Pasar "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" dijadwalkan diselesaikan pada atau sekitar May 31, 2026. Ini berarti trading akan tetap terbuka dan peluang akan terus bergeser saat informasi baru muncul sampai tanggal tersebut. Waktu resolusi tepat tergantung pada kapan hasil resmi tersedia, seperti diuraikan di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini.
Pasar "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" memiliki komunitas aktif dengan 150 komentar di mana trader berbagi analisis, memperdebatkan hasil, dan membahas perkembangan terkini. Scroll ke bawah ke bagian komentar untuk membaca apa yang dipikirkan peserta lain. Kamu juga bisa memfilter berdasarkan "Top Holder" untuk melihat posisi trader terbesar pasar, atau periksa tab "Aktivitas" untuk feed real-time dari trade.
Polymarket adalah pasar prediksi terbesar di dunia, di mana kamu bisa tetap terinformasi dan mendapatkan keuntungan dari pengetahuanmu tentang event dunia nyata. Trader membeli dan menjual saham pada hasil untuk topik mulai dari politik dan pemilu hingga crypto, keuangan, olahraga, teknologi, dan budaya, termasuk pasar seperti "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?." Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time yang didukung oleh keyakinan finansial, sering kali memberikan sinyal yang lebih cepat dan lebih akurat daripada jajak pendapat, pakar, atau survei tradisional.
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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan