Skip to main content
icon for Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
Geopolitik·Iran

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

icon for Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
Geopolitik·Iran

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

May 31

May 31

0-10 87%

10-20 7%

20-40 3.1%

60+ 2.7%

Polymarket

$302,296 Vol.

0-10 87%

10-20 7%

20-40 3.1%

60+ 2.7%

Polymarket

$302,296 Vol.

0-10

$165,300 Vol.

87%

10-20

$40,888 Vol.

7%

20-40

$31,519 Vol.

3%

40-60

$24,526 Vol.

2%

60+

$40,596 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions and Iranian restrictions continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-May 2026, vessel tracking data shows daily transits reduced to single digits amid attacks on shipping, Iranian-imposed tolls, mine threats, and suspended operations by major carriers including Maersk and MSC. Over 1,500 vessels remain stranded in the Gulf, with insurance coverage withdrawn and alternative routes prioritized. Gulf states have advanced a UN Security Council resolution demanding Iran halt disruptions and guarantee safe passage, yet no immediate reopening has materialized. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring very low average daily transits by end of May, reflecting sustained security risks and diplomatic impasse in the key energy chokepoint.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.

This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$302,296
Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions and Iranian restrictions continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-May 2026, vessel tracking data shows daily transits reduced to single digits amid attacks on shipping, Iranian-imposed tolls, mine threats, and suspended operations by major carriers including Maersk and MSC. Over 1,500 vessels remain stranded in the Gulf, with insurance coverage withdrawn and alternative routes prioritized. Gulf states have advanced a UN Security Council resolution demanding Iran halt disruptions and guarantee safe passage, yet no immediate reopening has materialized. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring very low average daily transits by end of May, reflecting sustained security risks and diplomatic impasse in the key energy chokepoint.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.

This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$302,296
Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 5 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "0-10" di 87%, diikuti oleh "10-20" di 7%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 87¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 87% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?" telah menghasilkan $302.3K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 30, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?," jelajahi 5 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?" adalah "0-10" di 87%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 87% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "10-20" di 7%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.