Israel's repeated interceptions of prior Gaza aid flotillas, including the Global Sumud Flotilla's April 2026 attempt near Crete, have established a clear pattern of naval enforcement that continues to shape trader expectations for the current voyage. Multiple vessels departed from Turkish and Greek ports in mid-May, joining earlier departures from Spain and Italy, yet the remaining distance across the eastern Mediterranean, combined with Israel's declared commitment to upholding its blockade, leaves insufficient time for safe passage before the May 31 cutoff. Historical outcomes, recent detentions of activists, and the absence of any announced change in Israeli naval operations reinforce the near-certain consensus reflected in current pricing. The only plausible shifts would involve a sudden diplomatic reversal or successful evasion of patrols, both of which lack supporting developments in the present timeline.