The Iranian regime's survival through the early 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict, leadership transition to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, and subsequent military-security reshuffles under IRGC influence have reinforced trader expectations against collapse by September 30. Security forces, including the Basij, have maintained cohesion amid ongoing economic strains, protests, and Strait of Hormuz tensions, with recent appointments emphasizing internal monitoring and deterrence. This short resolution window limits scope for the scale of defections, elite fractures, or mass unrest required for regime change, as historical patterns show such transitions typically unfold over longer periods despite vulnerabilities. Unforeseen triggers like sudden leadership incapacitation or major external escalation remain the primary variables that could alter the current consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
2% peluang
$1,619,833 Vol.
$1,619,833 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
2% peluang
$1,619,833 Vol.
$1,619,833 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the early 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict, leadership transition to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, and subsequent military-security reshuffles under IRGC influence have reinforced trader expectations against collapse by September 30. Security forces, including the Basij, have maintained cohesion amid ongoing economic strains, protests, and Strait of Hormuz tensions, with recent appointments emphasizing internal monitoring and deterrence. This short resolution window limits scope for the scale of defections, elite fractures, or mass unrest required for regime change, as historical patterns show such transitions typically unfold over longer periods despite vulnerabilities. Unforeseen triggers like sudden leadership incapacitation or major external escalation remain the primary variables that could alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$1,619,833Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the early 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict, leadership transition to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, and subsequent military-security reshuffles under IRGC influence have reinforced trader expectations against collapse by September 30. Security forces, including the Basij, have maintained cohesion amid ongoing economic strains, protests, and Strait of Hormuz tensions, with recent appointments emphasizing internal monitoring and deterrence. This short resolution window limits scope for the scale of defections, elite fractures, or mass unrest required for regime change, as historical patterns show such transitions typically unfold over longer periods despite vulnerabilities. Unforeseen triggers like sudden leadership incapacitation or major external escalation remain the primary variables that could alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,619,833Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's survival through the early 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict, leadership transition to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, and subsequent military-security reshuffles under IRGC influence have reinforced trader expectations against collapse by September 30. Security forces, including the Basij, have maintained cohesion amid ongoing economic strains, protests, and Strait of Hormuz tensions, with recent appointments emphasizing internal monitoring and deterrence. This short resolution window limits scope for the scale of defections, elite fractures, or mass unrest required for regime change, as historical patterns show such transitions typically unfold over longer periods despite vulnerabilities. Unforeseen triggers like sudden leadership incapacitation or major external escalation remain the primary variables that could alter the current consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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