Trader consensus favors 54-57% turnout at 42% implied probability for Colombia's May 31 presidential election first round, aligning closely with the 2022 benchmark of 54.9% amid a fragmented race where leftist Iván Cepeda leads polls at around 35-38%, followed by right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right Paloma Valencia, none projected to exceed 50% and trigger a runoff. The March 8 legislative elections and primaries saw notably low turnout, reflecting voter apathy despite high primary participation for Valencia, while expectations of 23 million voters from about 39 million eligible suggest moderate mobilization without a surge. No major enthusiasm drivers have emerged in the past week, keeping higher bins like 60%+ at 28.6%.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato54-57% 51%
51-54% 18%
57-60% 18.0%
48-51% 15%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 mag 2026
<48%
5%
48-51%
26%
51-54%
23%
54-57%
48%
57-60%
14%
60%+
28%
54-57% 51%
51-54% 18%
57-60% 18.0%
48-51% 15%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 mag 2026
<48%
$436 Vol.
5%
48-51%
$428 Vol.
26%
51-54%
$420 Vol.
23%
54-57%
$436 Vol.
48%
57-60%
$420 Vol.
14%
60%+
$484 Vol.
28%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus favors 54-57% turnout at 42% implied probability for Colombia's May 31 presidential election first round, aligning closely with the 2022 benchmark of 54.9% amid a fragmented race where leftist Iván Cepeda leads polls at around 35-38%, followed by right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right Paloma Valencia, none projected to exceed 50% and trigger a runoff. The March 8 legislative elections and primaries saw notably low turnout, reflecting voter apathy despite high primary participation for Valencia, while expectations of 23 million voters from about 39 million eligible suggest moderate mobilization without a surge. No major enthusiasm drivers have emerged in the past week, keeping higher bins like 60%+ at 28.6%.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Mercato aperto: Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$2,624Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus favors 54-57% turnout at 42% implied probability for Colombia's May 31 presidential election first round, aligning closely with the 2022 benchmark of 54.9% amid a fragmented race where leftist Iván Cepeda leads polls at around 35-38%, followed by right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right Paloma Valencia, none projected to exceed 50% and trigger a runoff. The March 8 legislative elections and primaries saw notably low turnout, reflecting voter apathy despite high primary participation for Valencia, while expectations of 23 million voters from about 39 million eligible suggest moderate mobilization without a surge. No major enthusiasm drivers have emerged in the past week, keeping higher bins like 60%+ at 28.6%.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$2,624Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 54-57% turnout at 42% implied probability for Colombia's May 31 presidential election first round, aligning closely with the 2022 benchmark of 54.9% amid a fragmented race where leftist Iván Cepeda leads polls at around 35-38%, followed by right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right Paloma Valencia, none projected to exceed 50% and trigger a runoff. The March 8 legislative elections and primaries saw notably low turnout, reflecting voter apathy despite high primary participation for Valencia, while expectations of 23 million voters from about 39 million eligible suggest moderate mobilization without a surge. No major enthusiasm drivers have emerged in the past week, keeping higher bins like 60%+ at 28.6%.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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