Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's December 8-9, 2026 policy decision, where the current 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range remains the baseline. July CPI data released August 12 showed a 3.4% year-over-year increase—down modestly from 3.5% in June—with core prices rising 2.5% annually, while the July FOMC meeting produced a 9-3 hold vote and hawkish dissents. These factors support the 58.5% implied probability of no change and the 30.0% chance of a 25 basis point hike, as markets weigh persistent price pressures against official projections showing nine participants favoring tighter policy by year-end. The August CPI release and September FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path priced into fed funds futures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNessun cambiamento 59%
25 bps increase 30%
25 bps decrease 10.7%
50+ bps decrease 2.4%
$97,953 Vol.
$97,953 Vol.
9 dic 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
11%
Nessun cambiamento
59%
25 bps increase
30%
50+ bps increase
1%
Nessun cambiamento 59%
25 bps increase 30%
25 bps decrease 10.7%
50+ bps decrease 2.4%
$97,953 Vol.
$97,953 Vol.
9 dic 2026
50+ bps decrease
$15,533 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$27,352 Vol.
11%
Nessun cambiamento
$21,066 Vol.
59%
25 bps increase
$19,487 Vol.
30%
50+ bps increase
$14,515 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's December 8-9, 2026 policy decision, where the current 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range remains the baseline. July CPI data released August 12 showed a 3.4% year-over-year increase—down modestly from 3.5% in June—with core prices rising 2.5% annually, while the July FOMC meeting produced a 9-3 hold vote and hawkish dissents. These factors support the 58.5% implied probability of no change and the 30.0% chance of a 25 basis point hike, as markets weigh persistent price pressures against official projections showing nine participants favoring tighter policy by year-end. The August CPI release and September FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path priced into fed funds futures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$97,953Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's December 8-9, 2026 policy decision, where the current 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range remains the baseline. July CPI data released August 12 showed a 3.4% year-over-year increase—down modestly from 3.5% in June—with core prices rising 2.5% annually, while the July FOMC meeting produced a 9-3 hold vote and hawkish dissents. These factors support the 58.5% implied probability of no change and the 30.0% chance of a 25 basis point hike, as markets weigh persistent price pressures against official projections showing nine participants favoring tighter policy by year-end. The August CPI release and September FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path priced into fed funds futures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$97,953Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's December 8-9, 2026 policy decision, where the current 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range remains the baseline. July CPI data released August 12 showed a 3.4% year-over-year increase—down modestly from 3.5% in June—with core prices rising 2.5% annually, while the July FOMC meeting produced a 9-3 hold vote and hawkish dissents. These factors support the 58.5% implied probability of no change and the 30.0% chance of a 25 basis point hike, as markets weigh persistent price pressures against official projections showing nine participants favoring tighter policy by year-end. The August CPI release and September FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path priced into fed funds futures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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