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icon for Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Galway-Ovest?
Politica·Elezioni Globali

Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Galway-Ovest?

icon for Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Galway-Ovest?
Politica·Elezioni Globali

Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Galway-Ovest?

Noel Thomas 44%

Seán Kyne 32.8%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.4%

Mike Cubbard 9.1%

Polymarket

$44,518 Vol.

Noel Thomas 44%

Seán Kyne 32.8%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.4%

Mike Cubbard 9.1%

Polymarket

$44,518 Vol.

Sheila Garrity

$20,225 Vol.

1%

Seán Kyne

$3,490 Vol.

33%

Niall Murphy

$1,820 Vol.

<1%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

$1,617 Vol.

10%

Orla Nugent

$1,620 Vol.

<1%

Helen Ogbu

$2,902 Vol.

7%

Denman Rooke

$1,591 Vol.

1%

Noel Thomas

$5,010 Vol.

44%

Thomas Welby

$1,676 Vol.

<1%

Mike Cubbard

$2,079 Vol.

9%

Mark Lohan

$2,488 Vol.

5%

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).A recent Irish Times/TG4-Ipsos B&A opinion poll positioned Fine Gael's Seán Kyne and Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas neck-and-neck on first-preference votes at 17% and 16%, respectively, driving trader consensus toward a closely contested Galway West Dáil by-election on May 22 under Ireland's PR-STV system where transfers will prove decisive. Thomas's edge in betting markets reflects Independent Ireland's surge in rural Connemara areas, anti-government sentiment on cost-of-living pressures, and HSE funding woes, outpacing Kyne despite Fine Gael's organizational strength. Labour's Helen Ogbu (12% in poll) and Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich emerge as key transfer influencers in this fragmented field, with no new polls altering the dynamic amid ongoing canvassing.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$44,518
Data di fine
31 mar 2027
Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).A recent Irish Times/TG4-Ipsos B&A opinion poll positioned Fine Gael's Seán Kyne and Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas neck-and-neck on first-preference votes at 17% and 16%, respectively, driving trader consensus toward a closely contested Galway West Dáil by-election on May 22 under Ireland's PR-STV system where transfers will prove decisive. Thomas's edge in betting markets reflects Independent Ireland's surge in rural Connemara areas, anti-government sentiment on cost-of-living pressures, and HSE funding woes, outpacing Kyne despite Fine Gael's organizational strength. Labour's Helen Ogbu (12% in poll) and Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich emerge as key transfer influencers in this fragmented field, with no new polls altering the dynamic amid ongoing canvassing.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$44,518
Data di fine
31 mar 2027
Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Domande frequenti

"Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Galway-Ovest?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 11 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Noel Thomas" a 44%, seguito da "Seán Kyne" a 33%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 44¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 44% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Galway-Ovest?" ha generato $44.5K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Feb 26, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Galway-Ovest?", esplora i 11 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Galway-Ovest?" è "Noel Thomas" a 44%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 44% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Seán Kyne" a 33%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Vincitore delle elezioni suppletive di Galway-Ovest?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.