Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources such as GFS and ECMWF indicate a maximum temperature of 23–24°C for Istanbul on September 18 under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with light to moderate northeasterly winds. These conditions, driven by a stable high-pressure influence and cooler air advection from the north, align closely with the market’s heavy weighting toward 23°C (66.5% implied probability) and 24°C (28.5%). Recent surface observations and model consensus show no significant warming trend or frontal passage in the past 48 hours, keeping temperatures near seasonal norms for mid-September. Traders appear to be pricing in limited upside risk from any afternoon clearing, with lower probabilities assigned to 22°C or 25°C reflecting residual ensemble spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Istanbul il 18 settembre?
La temperatura più alta di Istanbul il 18 settembre?
23°C 67%
24°C 29%
22°C 4%
25°C 3%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 set 2026
20°C o inferiore
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
4%
23°C
67%
24°C
29%
25°C
3%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C o superiore
<1%
23°C 67%
24°C 29%
22°C 4%
25°C 3%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 set 2026
20°C o inferiore
$13 Vol.
2%
21°C
$183 Vol.
2%
22°C
$295 Vol.
4%
23°C
$961 Vol.
67%
24°C
$656 Vol.
29%
25°C
$257 Vol.
3%
26°C
$167 Vol.
2%
27°C
$100 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$46 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$573 Vol.
<1%
30°C o superiore
$778 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources such as GFS and ECMWF indicate a maximum temperature of 23–24°C for Istanbul on September 18 under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with light to moderate northeasterly winds. These conditions, driven by a stable high-pressure influence and cooler air advection from the north, align closely with the market’s heavy weighting toward 23°C (66.5% implied probability) and 24°C (28.5%). Recent surface observations and model consensus show no significant warming trend or frontal passage in the past 48 hours, keeping temperatures near seasonal norms for mid-September. Traders appear to be pricing in limited upside risk from any afternoon clearing, with lower probabilities assigned to 22°C or 25°C reflecting residual ensemble spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$4,028Data di fine
18 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources such as GFS and ECMWF indicate a maximum temperature of 23–24°C for Istanbul on September 18 under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with light to moderate northeasterly winds. These conditions, driven by a stable high-pressure influence and cooler air advection from the north, align closely with the market’s heavy weighting toward 23°C (66.5% implied probability) and 24°C (28.5%). Recent surface observations and model consensus show no significant warming trend or frontal passage in the past 48 hours, keeping temperatures near seasonal norms for mid-September. Traders appear to be pricing in limited upside risk from any afternoon clearing, with lower probabilities assigned to 22°C or 25°C reflecting residual ensemble spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,028Data di fine
18 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources such as GFS and ECMWF indicate a maximum temperature of 23–24°C for Istanbul on September 18 under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with light to moderate northeasterly winds. These conditions, driven by a stable high-pressure influence and cooler air advection from the north, align closely with the market’s heavy weighting toward 23°C (66.5% implied probability) and 24°C (28.5%). Recent surface observations and model consensus show no significant warming trend or frontal passage in the past 48 hours, keeping temperatures near seasonal norms for mid-September. Traders appear to be pricing in limited upside risk from any afternoon clearing, with lower probabilities assigned to 22°C or 25°C reflecting residual ensemble spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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