National Weather Service surface observations at LaGuardia Airport and Central Park recorded a daily maximum temperature of 76–77°F for New York City on May 16, aligning with the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability for that bin. Model guidance from the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM converged on modest southerly flow and limited mixing under partly sunny skies, keeping peak heating well below the May climatological average of 72–75°F. This outcome reflects verified thermometer readings rather than forecasts, with resolution criteria tied directly to the highest hourly value at the designated stations. Only an undocumented station calibration error or post-event data revision could alter the result at this stage.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in NYC on May 16?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 16?
76-77°F 100.0%
65°F or below <1%
66-67°F <1%
68-69°F <1%
$184,814 Vol.
$184,814 Vol.
16 mag 2026
65°F or below
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
Yes
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84°F or higher
No
76-77°F 100.0%
65°F or below <1%
66-67°F <1%
68-69°F <1%
$184,814 Vol.
$184,814 Vol.
16 mag 2026
65°F or below
$3,745 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$3,024 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$3,773 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$3,610 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$12,691 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$12,156 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$47,645 Vol.
Yes
78-79°F
$27,165 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$31,114 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$22,880 Vol.
No
84°F or higher
$17,013 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service surface observations at LaGuardia Airport and Central Park recorded a daily maximum temperature of 76–77°F for New York City on May 16, aligning with the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability for that bin. Model guidance from the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM converged on modest southerly flow and limited mixing under partly sunny skies, keeping peak heating well below the May climatological average of 72–75°F. This outcome reflects verified thermometer readings rather than forecasts, with resolution criteria tied directly to the highest hourly value at the designated stations. Only an undocumented station calibration error or post-event data revision could alter the result at this stage.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$184,814Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service surface observations at LaGuardia Airport and Central Park recorded a daily maximum temperature of 76–77°F for New York City on May 16, aligning with the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability for that bin. Model guidance from the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM converged on modest southerly flow and limited mixing under partly sunny skies, keeping peak heating well below the May climatological average of 72–75°F. This outcome reflects verified thermometer readings rather than forecasts, with resolution criteria tied directly to the highest hourly value at the designated stations. Only an undocumented station calibration error or post-event data revision could alter the result at this stage.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$184,814Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
National Weather Service surface observations at LaGuardia Airport and Central Park recorded a daily maximum temperature of 76–77°F for New York City on May 16, aligning with the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability for that bin. Model guidance from the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM converged on modest southerly flow and limited mixing under partly sunny skies, keeping peak heating well below the May climatological average of 72–75°F. This outcome reflects verified thermometer readings rather than forecasts, with resolution criteria tied directly to the highest hourly value at the designated stations. Only an undocumented station calibration error or post-event data revision could alter the result at this stage.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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