Latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models point to a daytime maximum near 28–29 °C at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport on May 17, driven by a moist air mass and variable cloud cover that limits peak solar heating. Mid-May climatology shows average highs of 26–28 °C, but recent observations indicate modest warming tempered by scattered convection and high humidity near 70–80 %, keeping the diurnal range compressed. Any unexpected morning clearing would favor the upper side of the distribution, while earlier or heavier showers would cap temperatures closer to 27 °C. Trader consensus reflects this narrow uncertainty band, with model spreads and timing of precipitation remaining the key variables until the final observational period.