Latest MetService ensemble forecasts position a 14°C daily maximum in Wellington as the most likely outcome for May 17, supported by persistent southerly flow and stable high-pressure patterns that have limited daytime warming over recent days. These conditions align with May climatology, where average highs range from 13–15°C amid frequent Cook Strait winds that enhance mixing and suppress peaks above 16°C. Model runs show minimal disagreement on the upper envelope, keeping 15°C and 13°C as secondary but viable alternatives depending on any late-day cloud cover or wind shifts. Traders have priced the 46% implied probability on 14°C to reflect this narrow meteorological window, with tails below 12°C or above 16°C remaining improbable absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated guidance tomorrow morning will provide the final data window before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Wellington il 17 maggio?
La temperatura più alta a Wellington il 17 maggio?
14°C 49%
13°C 27%
15°C 14%
12°C 3.6%
NUOVO
$29,972 Vol.
NUOVO
$29,972 Vol.
17 mag 2026
8°C o inferiore
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
4%
13°C
27%
14°C
49%
15°C
14%
16°C
2%
17°C
<1%
18°C o superiore
1%
14°C 49%
13°C 27%
15°C 14%
12°C 3.6%
NUOVO
$29,972 Vol.
NUOVO
$29,972 Vol.
17 mag 2026
8°C o inferiore
$4,661 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$2,840 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,347 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$2,439 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,054 Vol.
4%
13°C
$1,899 Vol.
27%
14°C
$2,080 Vol.
49%
15°C
$2,298 Vol.
14%
16°C
$2,734 Vol.
2%
17°C
$3,885 Vol.
<1%
18°C o superiore
$4,735 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest MetService ensemble forecasts position a 14°C daily maximum in Wellington as the most likely outcome for May 17, supported by persistent southerly flow and stable high-pressure patterns that have limited daytime warming over recent days. These conditions align with May climatology, where average highs range from 13–15°C amid frequent Cook Strait winds that enhance mixing and suppress peaks above 16°C. Model runs show minimal disagreement on the upper envelope, keeping 15°C and 13°C as secondary but viable alternatives depending on any late-day cloud cover or wind shifts. Traders have priced the 46% implied probability on 14°C to reflect this narrow meteorological window, with tails below 12°C or above 16°C remaining improbable absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated guidance tomorrow morning will provide the final data window before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$29,972Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest MetService ensemble forecasts position a 14°C daily maximum in Wellington as the most likely outcome for May 17, supported by persistent southerly flow and stable high-pressure patterns that have limited daytime warming over recent days. These conditions align with May climatology, where average highs range from 13–15°C amid frequent Cook Strait winds that enhance mixing and suppress peaks above 16°C. Model runs show minimal disagreement on the upper envelope, keeping 15°C and 13°C as secondary but viable alternatives depending on any late-day cloud cover or wind shifts. Traders have priced the 46% implied probability on 14°C to reflect this narrow meteorological window, with tails below 12°C or above 16°C remaining improbable absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated guidance tomorrow morning will provide the final data window before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$29,972Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNLatest MetService ensemble forecasts position a 14°C daily maximum in Wellington as the most likely outcome for May 17, supported by persistent southerly flow and stable high-pressure patterns that have limited daytime warming over recent days. These conditions align with May climatology, where average highs range from 13–15°C amid frequent Cook Strait winds that enhance mixing and suppress peaks above 16°C. Model runs show minimal disagreement on the upper envelope, keeping 15°C and 13°C as secondary but viable alternatives depending on any late-day cloud cover or wind shifts. Traders have priced the 46% implied probability on 14°C to reflect this narrow meteorological window, with tails below 12°C or above 16°C remaining improbable absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated guidance tomorrow morning will provide the final data window before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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