Current forecast models from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration indicate a tight cluster of daytime highs between 29°C and 31°C for Taipei on May 17, with scattered afternoon convection and variable cloud cover from early Meiyu frontal boundaries limiting peak solar heating. Persistent high humidity and southerly moisture advection suppress temperatures below the seasonal climatological peak near 30°C, while urban heat-island effects at the official observation site could nudge readings toward the upper end of the range. Traders have priced the 30°C outcome as the narrow leader because ensemble guidance shows only modest model spread on steering patterns and instability, leaving room for a last-minute shift if clearer skies develop or if stronger onshore flow arrives.