Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Météo-France place the highest temperature in Paris on May 18 within a narrow 15–17 °C band, driving the close market split with 16 °C holding the edge at 39.5 % implied probability. Moderate southerly flow under variable spring cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, while ensemble spreads reflect modest uncertainty tied to the exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Historical mid-May averages near 18 °C provide context, yet current model consensus favors slightly cooler outcomes. Updated runs expected before official verification could shift probabilities if guidance trends warmer or cooler.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Parigi il 18 maggio?
La temperatura più alta di Parigi il 18 maggio?
16°C 39%
15°C 32%
17°C 23%
14°C 7%
NUOVO
$18,481 Vol.
NUOVO
$18,481 Vol.
18 mag 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
7%
15°C
32%
16°C
39%
17°C
23%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
1%
16°C 39%
15°C 32%
17°C 23%
14°C 7%
NUOVO
$18,481 Vol.
NUOVO
$18,481 Vol.
18 mag 2026
9°C or below
$1,482 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$3,369 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$817 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,760 Vol.
1%
13°C
$1,092 Vol.
2%
14°C
$2,418 Vol.
7%
15°C
$1,267 Vol.
32%
16°C
$2,061 Vol.
39%
17°C
$1,604 Vol.
23%
18°C
$1,250 Vol.
2%
19°C or higher
$1,361 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Météo-France place the highest temperature in Paris on May 18 within a narrow 15–17 °C band, driving the close market split with 16 °C holding the edge at 39.5 % implied probability. Moderate southerly flow under variable spring cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, while ensemble spreads reflect modest uncertainty tied to the exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Historical mid-May averages near 18 °C provide context, yet current model consensus favors slightly cooler outcomes. Updated runs expected before official verification could shift probabilities if guidance trends warmer or cooler.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$18,481Data di fine
18 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Météo-France place the highest temperature in Paris on May 18 within a narrow 15–17 °C band, driving the close market split with 16 °C holding the edge at 39.5 % implied probability. Moderate southerly flow under variable spring cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, while ensemble spreads reflect modest uncertainty tied to the exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Historical mid-May averages near 18 °C provide context, yet current model consensus favors slightly cooler outcomes. Updated runs expected before official verification could shift probabilities if guidance trends warmer or cooler.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$18,481Data di fine
18 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBRecent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Météo-France place the highest temperature in Paris on May 18 within a narrow 15–17 °C band, driving the close market split with 16 °C holding the edge at 39.5 % implied probability. Moderate southerly flow under variable spring cloud cover is limiting daytime heating, while ensemble spreads reflect modest uncertainty tied to the exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Historical mid-May averages near 18 °C provide context, yet current model consensus favors slightly cooler outcomes. Updated runs expected before official verification could shift probabilities if guidance trends warmer or cooler.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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