New People (NL) holds 15 seats from the 2021 election and enters the September 2026 State Duma vote as one of four recognized systemic opposition parties in a tightly managed electoral system. Recent party-list registration, merger with the Party of Growth, and federal convention have positioned the group for modest growth in regional groups and single-mandate districts, yet trader consensus at 93 percent for fewer than 35 seats reflects the structural limits on all non-United Russia parties. Kremlin-aligned administrative resources, candidate vetting, and historical seat allocations for parliamentary opposition factions continue to constrain outcomes even when some state polls show NL near or above 10 percent. Late shifts in turnout, additional administrative support in key regions, or changes in how authorities distribute single-member seats could still push totals higher, though the short campaign window and established patterns make substantial deviation unlikely.