Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and reciprocal blockades since late February have throttled commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily transits in early May, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 vessels per day. Heightened risks from attacks, mine threats, and selective Iranian routing approvals have kept most tankers and cargo ships loitering or rerouted, supporting trader consensus around the 20-39 outcome at 63.5% implied probability. Modest increases in permitted eastbound sailings mid-month, including a handful of VLCCs and bulk carriers, have lifted some weekly counts into the low 30s without restoring pre-war volumes. Key upcoming catalysts include any de-escalation in naval skirmishes or expanded US escort operations that could shift the range toward 40-59.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
20-39 53%
40-59 40%
60-79 4.8%
<20 3.1%
$87,153 Vol.
$87,153 Vol.
17 mag 2026
<20
3%
20-39
53%
40-59
47%
60-79
5%
80+
1%
20-39 53%
40-59 40%
60-79 4.8%
<20 3.1%
$87,153 Vol.
$87,153 Vol.
17 mag 2026
<20
$29,954 Vol.
3%
20-39
$14,426 Vol.
53%
40-59
$17,192 Vol.
47%
60-79
$12,964 Vol.
5%
80+
$12,617 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and reciprocal blockades since late February have throttled commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily transits in early May, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 vessels per day. Heightened risks from attacks, mine threats, and selective Iranian routing approvals have kept most tankers and cargo ships loitering or rerouted, supporting trader consensus around the 20-39 outcome at 63.5% implied probability. Modest increases in permitted eastbound sailings mid-month, including a handful of VLCCs and bulk carriers, have lifted some weekly counts into the low 30s without restoring pre-war volumes. Key upcoming catalysts include any de-escalation in naval skirmishes or expanded US escort operations that could shift the range toward 40-59.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercato aperto: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Volume
$87,153Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and reciprocal blockades since late February have throttled commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily transits in early May, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 vessels per day. Heightened risks from attacks, mine threats, and selective Iranian routing approvals have kept most tankers and cargo ships loitering or rerouted, supporting trader consensus around the 20-39 outcome at 63.5% implied probability. Modest increases in permitted eastbound sailings mid-month, including a handful of VLCCs and bulk carriers, have lifted some weekly counts into the low 30s without restoring pre-war volumes. Key upcoming catalysts include any de-escalation in naval skirmishes or expanded US escort operations that could shift the range toward 40-59.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$87,153Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and reciprocal blockades since late February have throttled commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily transits in early May, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 vessels per day. Heightened risks from attacks, mine threats, and selective Iranian routing approvals have kept most tankers and cargo ships loitering or rerouted, supporting trader consensus around the 20-39 outcome at 63.5% implied probability. Modest increases in permitted eastbound sailings mid-month, including a handful of VLCCs and bulk carriers, have lifted some weekly counts into the low 30s without restoring pre-war volumes. Key upcoming catalysts include any de-escalation in naval skirmishes or expanded US escort operations that could shift the range toward 40-59.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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