Iran’s ongoing campaign to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through warnings, route restrictions, and strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment in this market. Recent verifiable incidents include an August 8 attack on an ADNOC tanker and continued Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps efforts to enforce preferred transit lanes, even as direct U.S.-Iran clashes have eased. Iran-Oman talks on Strait administration provide a diplomatic channel that could reduce kinetic activity, while Iran-backed Houthi strikes in the Red Sea (including the August 12 fatal attack) illustrate proxy escalation risks without confirming direct Iranian action. The market’s implied probability near 56% for a successful Iranian kinetic strike or seizure by August 31 reflects uncertainty over whether Tehran will risk further direct confrontation before the resolution window closes or shift toward negotiated arrangements. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any new U.S. or regional responses could shift odds quickly.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$151,181 Vol.
14 ago 2026
15 agosto
9%
16 agosto
38%
17 agosto
18%
18 agosto
23%
19 agosto
14%
August 20
16%
21 agosto
15%
22 agosto
22%
August 23
16%
24 agosto
14%
25 agosto
32%
26 agosto
28%
27 agosto
28%
August 28
10%
29 agosto
11%
30 agosto
13%
31 agosto
8%
$151,181 Vol.
15 agosto
$6,821 Vol.
9%
16 agosto
$1,934 Vol.
38%
17 agosto
$596 Vol.
18%
18 agosto
$459 Vol.
23%
19 agosto
$3,371 Vol.
14%
August 20
$695 Vol.
16%
21 agosto
$1,141 Vol.
15%
22 agosto
$472 Vol.
22%
August 23
$2,938 Vol.
16%
24 agosto
$6,258 Vol.
14%
25 agosto
$90 Vol.
32%
26 agosto
$760 Vol.
28%
27 agosto
$342 Vol.
28%
August 28
$759 Vol.
10%
29 agosto
$1,418 Vol.
11%
30 agosto
$240 Vol.
13%
31 agosto
$1,018 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s ongoing campaign to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through warnings, route restrictions, and strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment in this market. Recent verifiable incidents include an August 8 attack on an ADNOC tanker and continued Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps efforts to enforce preferred transit lanes, even as direct U.S.-Iran clashes have eased. Iran-Oman talks on Strait administration provide a diplomatic channel that could reduce kinetic activity, while Iran-backed Houthi strikes in the Red Sea (including the August 12 fatal attack) illustrate proxy escalation risks without confirming direct Iranian action. The market’s implied probability near 56% for a successful Iranian kinetic strike or seizure by August 31 reflects uncertainty over whether Tehran will risk further direct confrontation before the resolution window closes or shift toward negotiated arrangements. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any new U.S. or regional responses could shift odds quickly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mercato aperto: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volume
$151,181Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Sì
Contestato
Esito proposto: Sì
Contestato
Esito finale: Sì
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s ongoing campaign to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through warnings, route restrictions, and strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment in this market. Recent verifiable incidents include an August 8 attack on an ADNOC tanker and continued Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps efforts to enforce preferred transit lanes, even as direct U.S.-Iran clashes have eased. Iran-Oman talks on Strait administration provide a diplomatic channel that could reduce kinetic activity, while Iran-backed Houthi strikes in the Red Sea (including the August 12 fatal attack) illustrate proxy escalation risks without confirming direct Iranian action. The market’s implied probability near 56% for a successful Iranian kinetic strike or seizure by August 31 reflects uncertainty over whether Tehran will risk further direct confrontation before the resolution window closes or shift toward negotiated arrangements. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any new U.S. or regional responses could shift odds quickly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$151,181Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Sì
Contestato
Esito proposto: Sì
Contestato
Esito finale: Sì
Iran’s ongoing campaign to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through warnings, route restrictions, and strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment in this market. Recent verifiable incidents include an August 8 attack on an ADNOC tanker and continued Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps efforts to enforce preferred transit lanes, even as direct U.S.-Iran clashes have eased. Iran-Oman talks on Strait administration provide a diplomatic channel that could reduce kinetic activity, while Iran-backed Houthi strikes in the Red Sea (including the August 12 fatal attack) illustrate proxy escalation risks without confirming direct Iranian action. The market’s implied probability near 56% for a successful Iranian kinetic strike or seizure by August 31 reflects uncertainty over whether Tehran will risk further direct confrontation before the resolution window closes or shift toward negotiated arrangements. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any new U.S. or regional responses could shift odds quickly.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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