Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and Iranian responses to prior strikes continue to shape trader views on shipping-target markets, with recent missile and drone incidents underscoring persistent risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. On August 13-14, Iran-linked forces struck UAE-linked tankers transiting the Strait, following a Houthi attack on August 12 that killed six mariners in the Red Sea—the first fatalities reported in that corridor since earlier in the conflict. These events align with broader patterns of Iranian and proxy actions against commercial vessels despite intermittent ceasefire discussions. Traders monitor diplomatic signals and naval movements for any near-term de-escalation that could reduce the likelihood of additional qualifying strikes before late-August resolution windows.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$156,490 Vol.
15 ago 2026
15 agosto
3%
16 agosto
18%
17 agosto
29%
18 agosto
17%
19 agosto
13%
August 20
15%
21 agosto
12%
22 agosto
19%
August 23
13%
24 agosto
14%
25 agosto
15%
26 agosto
28%
27 agosto
12%
August 28
15%
29 agosto
17%
30 agosto
13%
31 agosto
13%
$156,490 Vol.
15 agosto
$6,863 Vol.
3%
16 agosto
$3,243 Vol.
18%
17 agosto
$758 Vol.
29%
18 agosto
$514 Vol.
17%
19 agosto
$4,011 Vol.
13%
August 20
$1,557 Vol.
15%
21 agosto
$1,259 Vol.
12%
22 agosto
$545 Vol.
19%
August 23
$3,009 Vol.
13%
24 agosto
$6,259 Vol.
14%
25 agosto
$116 Vol.
15%
26 agosto
$768 Vol.
28%
27 agosto
$408 Vol.
12%
August 28
$1,252 Vol.
15%
29 agosto
$2,033 Vol.
17%
30 agosto
$260 Vol.
13%
31 agosto
$1,767 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and Iranian responses to prior strikes continue to shape trader views on shipping-target markets, with recent missile and drone incidents underscoring persistent risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. On August 13-14, Iran-linked forces struck UAE-linked tankers transiting the Strait, following a Houthi attack on August 12 that killed six mariners in the Red Sea—the first fatalities reported in that corridor since earlier in the conflict. These events align with broader patterns of Iranian and proxy actions against commercial vessels despite intermittent ceasefire discussions. Traders monitor diplomatic signals and naval movements for any near-term de-escalation that could reduce the likelihood of additional qualifying strikes before late-August resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mercato aperto: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volume
$156,490Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and Iranian responses to prior strikes continue to shape trader views on shipping-target markets, with recent missile and drone incidents underscoring persistent risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. On August 13-14, Iran-linked forces struck UAE-linked tankers transiting the Strait, following a Houthi attack on August 12 that killed six mariners in the Red Sea—the first fatalities reported in that corridor since earlier in the conflict. These events align with broader patterns of Iranian and proxy actions against commercial vessels despite intermittent ceasefire discussions. Traders monitor diplomatic signals and naval movements for any near-term de-escalation that could reduce the likelihood of additional qualifying strikes before late-August resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$156,490Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and Iranian responses to prior strikes continue to shape trader views on shipping-target markets, with recent missile and drone incidents underscoring persistent risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. On August 13-14, Iran-linked forces struck UAE-linked tankers transiting the Strait, following a Houthi attack on August 12 that killed six mariners in the Red Sea—the first fatalities reported in that corridor since earlier in the conflict. These events align with broader patterns of Iranian and proxy actions against commercial vessels despite intermittent ceasefire discussions. Traders monitor diplomatic signals and naval movements for any near-term de-escalation that could reduce the likelihood of additional qualifying strikes before late-August resolution windows.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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