Forecast models from NOAA and private sources position overnight lows in the 68–73°F range as the dominant outcomes for New York City on August 15, reflecting clear to partly cloudy skies, moderate dew points in the low 60s, and light winds that limit radiational cooling. These conditions align with mid-August climatology, where Central Park normals hover near 70°F, though the broader warmer-than-average summer has kept recent minima slightly elevated. Traders have concentrated probability on 70–71°F because ensemble guidance shows limited overnight drop potential absent stronger high pressure or drier air. Final resolution will depend on the official minimum reported by the National Weather Service at Central Park, with any late-day frontal passage or increased cloud cover the main variables that could shift readings lower.