**Official observations from the National Weather Service confirmed a minimum temperature of 55°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) on August 26, 2026, aligning closely with the market's dominant 56–57°F outcome at near-100% implied probability.** This positioning reflects the strong scientific consensus from verified METAR and climate reports showing overnight lows in the mid-50s°F under typical late-summer marine layer conditions, with dew points around 54–55°F and light winds preventing further radiative cooling. The slight deviation from the long-term normal low of 56°F (1991–2020 baseline) was driven by persistent onshore flow and fog/haze, which moderated temperatures without allowing a dip into the low 50s. Historical analogs for the date rarely produce readings below 53°F absent unusual synoptic patterns, reinforcing trader confidence in the observed range. Realistic scenarios that could have challenged this include a stronger offshore wind event or clearer skies enabling greater radiational cooling, potentially dropping the official minimum to 54°F or below—but no such shift materialized in the latest model guidance or real-time data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di San Francisco il 26 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa di San Francisco il 26 agosto?
56-57°F 100.0%
60-61°F <1%
47°F o inferiore <1%
48-49°F <1%
$2,221 Vol.
$2,221 Vol.
26 ago 2026
47°F o inferiore
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
Sì
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66°F o superiore
No
56-57°F 100.0%
60-61°F <1%
47°F o inferiore <1%
48-49°F <1%
$2,221 Vol.
$2,221 Vol.
26 ago 2026
47°F o inferiore
$40 Vol.
No
48-49°F
$62 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$45 Vol.
No
52-53°F
$347 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$198 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$594 Vol.
Sì
58-59°F
$326 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$171 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$70 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$285 Vol.
No
66°F o superiore
$83 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official observations from the National Weather Service confirmed a minimum temperature of 55°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) on August 26, 2026, aligning closely with the market's dominant 56–57°F outcome at near-100% implied probability.**
This positioning reflects the strong scientific consensus from verified METAR and climate reports showing overnight lows in the mid-50s°F under typical late-summer marine layer conditions, with dew points around 54–55°F and light winds preventing further radiative cooling. The slight deviation from the long-term normal low of 56°F (1991–2020 baseline) was driven by persistent onshore flow and fog/haze, which moderated temperatures without allowing a dip into the low 50s. Historical analogs for the date rarely produce readings below 53°F absent unusual synoptic patterns, reinforcing trader confidence in the observed range.
Realistic scenarios that could have challenged this include a stronger offshore wind event or clearer skies enabling greater radiational cooling, potentially dropping the official minimum to 54°F or below—but no such shift materialized in the latest model guidance or real-time data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$2,221Data di fine
26 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official observations from the National Weather Service confirmed a minimum temperature of 55°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) on August 26, 2026, aligning closely with the market's dominant 56–57°F outcome at near-100% implied probability.**
This positioning reflects the strong scientific consensus from verified METAR and climate reports showing overnight lows in the mid-50s°F under typical late-summer marine layer conditions, with dew points around 54–55°F and light winds preventing further radiative cooling. The slight deviation from the long-term normal low of 56°F (1991–2020 baseline) was driven by persistent onshore flow and fog/haze, which moderated temperatures without allowing a dip into the low 50s. Historical analogs for the date rarely produce readings below 53°F absent unusual synoptic patterns, reinforcing trader confidence in the observed range.
Realistic scenarios that could have challenged this include a stronger offshore wind event or clearer skies enabling greater radiational cooling, potentially dropping the official minimum to 54°F or below—but no such shift materialized in the latest model guidance or real-time data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,221Data di fine
26 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
**Official observations from the National Weather Service confirmed a minimum temperature of 55°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) on August 26, 2026, aligning closely with the market's dominant 56–57°F outcome at near-100% implied probability.** This positioning reflects the strong scientific consensus from verified METAR and climate reports showing overnight lows in the mid-50s°F under typical late-summer marine layer conditions, with dew points around 54–55°F and light winds preventing further radiative cooling. The slight deviation from the long-term normal low of 56°F (1991–2020 baseline) was driven by persistent onshore flow and fog/haze, which moderated temperatures without allowing a dip into the low 50s. Historical analogs for the date rarely produce readings below 53°F absent unusual synoptic patterns, reinforcing trader confidence in the observed range. Realistic scenarios that could have challenged this include a stronger offshore wind event or clearer skies enabling greater radiational cooling, potentially dropping the official minimum to 54°F or below—but no such shift materialized in the latest model guidance or real-time data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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